LIVEdigitally

If you are unfamiliar with the term, read my friend Harry’s article for a great piece on “the fanboy“.  Now, onto the piece – which I anticipate bringing me tons of annoyed Android folks (much like my tablet rant did last year).

I started using Android last December with the HTC Droid Eris.  My decision came after watching a friend really enjoy the use, a small amount of personal hands-on time, and the excitement about the platform itself.  Eight months later, and other than the vision of an open platform for smartphones, I have nothing but disdain for the current Android phone landscape.  I find the devices crude and clunky, the product experience weak, and the overall state of the platform in “advanced beta” at best (if enough people clamor in the comments, I’ll write another post on just that topic).  Granted, I am a product purist and I have one of the weaker Android devices on the market, but I’ve had a chance to use every one of the current “state of the art” phones other than the Droid 2, and my opinions remain the same.

Yet they are selling them by the bucketful.  So I can’t possibly be right on this, as 20+ million other people are defying my belief that the phones themselves are lousy and barely usable.  Or can I?  After lots of discussions with Android users, I’ve divided up the Android world into the following buckets:

• Android Newbies: This group is new to the Android experience, and are probably very happy with their experience, despite lots of frustrating glitches at times.  Why?  Most of them are upgrading from feature phones (the industry term for a non-smartphone), and this is likely their very first experience to having the magic of Interwebbing on their phones.  What’s not to love?  That part comes soon.
• Android Haters: Having used their Android device for weeks-to-months, they have come to notice all its shortcomings, ranging from inconsistent back button use to awkward keyboards to erratic input sensitivity, all things they failed to really notice during the 30 day window to return the phone with no commitment.  Furthermore, they are likely annoyed that their phone became outdated in less than 90 days since purchase – a phenomenon not well appreciated by tens of millions of people, despite what the tech community thinks. They/we are trapped, waiting, hoping, watching…
• Android Fanboys: The folks who think Android just freakin’ rocks, man.

What’s wrong with a Fanboy? Nothing at all.  I have nothing but good feelings for anyone who loves any product, platform, service, etc – it’s fun to love stuff.  However, I’m more than a little concerned about (1) more newbies buying products they shouldn’t, (2) building up the “Awesomeness” of the platform to the tech industry, when it’s not really at the same caliber as it could be (and indirectly letting device makers off the hook to build better products), and most importantly – (3) my phone sucks and I’m pissed, so this is my chance to vent.

Here’s some tips how to tell the Fanboys from the rest. Take it all with a grain of salt.

• They preach about openness.  The Android fanboy will tell you multiple times about how the platform is open and how that’s a great benefit to everyone. Let’s be totally blunt for a second: the average technology user cares about “open” products roughly zero.  If they did, then companies like Microsoft, Apple, etc would never have become the behemoths they are.  Openness is great in theory, and in very specific instances can be a huge factor, but it is not, in and of itself, a “benefit”.  My “open” phone has a lousy app marketplace, requires third-party software to be regularly usable, has no inherent easy way to play media files, and actually shipped with not one, but two different native email applications (one of which actually disappeared on its own during the last software update).
• They show you widgets. “Look ma, its the weather! On my Phone!” Android devices are capable of displaying widgets, which are unquestionably one of the coolest things about Android.  But there’s only a few really useful widgets, and they do not, in any way, make up for the rest of the Android experience.  I have a widget called “Agenda”.  When I view it, it takes up to 5 seconds to show me my agenda (during which it doesn’t say “loading agenda”, it says “NO agenda”.).  Ditto for my Stocks widget, Mail widget, etc.  Don’t get me wrong, I love the widgets, but they alone do not a good phone make.
• They ignore the little details. My “send text message to my wife” shortcut on my home screen is very cool (shortcuts, after widgets, are a very cool element of Android).  But when I click on it, it brings me to a “send message” screen, with my cursor highlighting the “To” field, resulting in me starting to write my text in the wrong place (it should be the “message” field).  Not a big deal, right?  There’s tons of them. Now compound that little experience to all experiences and you’ll get a better picture.  It’s as if every edge possible could be the rough version.  But Fanboys don’t care, they’ll trivialize these nuances or tell you they’ll be fixed in an upcoming version (more on that in a moment).  Here’s the thing: it’s the little things that matter when it comes to product experience!  If every single time I send a text message I have to go through an inconvenience, how on earth can this be “awesome”?
• They know the difference between Android versions and implementations. For those unaware, Android is a rapidly evolving platform, which at the surface sounds really great.  But it isn’t great to most consumers who are buying phones for their use now, and who don’t want to have to think about things getting fixed in the future.   I’d make the analogy to early days of Windows, except when you buy a Dell or an HP (or, shudder, a Vaio – wow, been a while since I went there!), you get a product that works consistently, with some extremely subtle nuance in specific applications.  In Android, a Froyo with Sense is different than an Eclair with Blur.  Yup, that was a technically accurate statement. The problem here is the very core, the baseline experience simply isn’t good enough, and Google is trying to fight the very upstream battle in mobile of getting manufacturers to not differentiate against each other.  Lastly, since there’s upgrades coming all the time, it’s impossible to know if the phone you buy today will do the things Android is promised to one day do.
• They justify carrying huge phones. Have you seen the Evo or Droid X?  Massive.  Practically as big as my iPad (no, not really, calm down).  Maybe if the platform included a great video delivery experience (translated: or any video experience) this would make sense.  Instead, you get a huge brick and are left to figure out what to do with it on your own. Worst of all, the bigger phones are the “good” ones, leaving consumers with the awkward decision between buying something convenient versus a house phone. The moment a device isn’t pocket-sized, it’s competing against non-phones, but yet the Fanboys overlook this every time.  And if carnies can’t hold it, I don’t want it either.  And while I’m at it, can someone explain how 2-3 hours of use with a fully charged battery is considered acceptable??
• They make a big deal out of commonplace stuff. Here’s a recent review of the HTC Hero, which used no fewer than three sentences to praise the headphone jack.  Yes, the headphone jack.  And so you don’t have to read it, just know – it’s just a headphone jack!  In the words of a fanboy: Woot!1!!
• They get excited about hot-sounding but generally impractical features. Translating voice into text messages?  Sounds awesome.  Now use it.  This piece sums it all up nicely.  In all truth, you really can build some amazing things with Android, I don’t deny that at all.  But if you don’t have the basics working amazingly well, it doesn’t matter.  It’s like having sprinkles on your hot fudge sauce on your ice cream on your 7 layer cake only to find out the cake is liver-flavored.

And now for the clincher

They compare against the iPhone, all the time.  Greatness is defined by what you are, not by what something else is or isn’t.  I wrote this entire post without referencing the iPhone (until now), as I have no interest in comparing the two (I personally have never owned an iPhone, for the record).  I have no idea what Android does “better” than an iPhone, I don’t care, as it doesn’t improve my experience one bit.  But Fanboys do.  Fanboys can’t not bash the iPhone to make a point (here’s an article with 18 references to the iPhone alone). The iPhone being a closed system doesn’t help me decipher bizarre icons littering my experience.  The iPhone dropping calls doesn’t help me accidentally hang up on callers because the logic to process touch events handles them after rendering new activities (translation: I am clicking a button on the screen, a call comes in, and the place I had just clicked was “ignore call”, and the phone decides that my click was to ignore the call, not whatever I was doing before.  This is poor design).  The iPhone having a death grip doesn’t make my onscreen keyboard more usable.  So I’ll say it again: Greatness is defined by what you are, not by what something else is or isn’t.

Since three of the four people in my office didn’t realize that FaceTime isn’t enabled by default, we thought it would be nice to share the simple, but easily over-looked aspect of how to actually turn it on for anyone with an iPhone 4.  And yes, I am jealous, but I’m on Verizon and that’s not changing anytime soon (though I think my Android phone is heading to the trashbin fairly soon – more on that another time).  Also, I think this post will do really well for my blog’s SEO purposes, which is great because of all the ads I show.  Oh, wait…  Anyhow, here you go:

When you first get your iPhone and make a call, it’ll look like the old iPhone call screen:

Don’t fret, you are merely 4 clicks away from Facetime!  First, go to home, then settings:

Then click on “Phone” settings.  Now you’ll see a big happy shiny button to enable FaceTime.  Do so.

Now the next time you make a call, you’ll see the FaceTime button dead-center in the middle.  And all will be well in your world!

We had a little debate about if this should’ve been enabled by default or not. I think we all agreed it seemed a bit odd to start disabled, but I’m sure there was some reason behind it, possibly due to privacy, bandwidth concerns, etc.  Once FaceTime is enabled, you’ll also notice a slight change in your call history:

I wonder if a future version of iOS will enable FaceTime voicemails or recording?

Anyhow, hope this was helpful to those who didn’t want to have to use the official Apple FaceTime tryout number!  :)

The Android Market (droid’s equivalent to the iPhone App Store) is fundamentally broken. It’s a poor experience from start to finish, and exemplifies the grace with which Apple builds hardware and software products.  Unfortunately there’s no easy way to take screenshots directly on the device, so I’ve scraped around the ‘net to find images to reflect the issues I have.

Part 1: Finding Apps

Like most sites/services, finding apps works via Search and Browse.  You can Search for something by word/term, and see apps that match – it works “ok” but not super impressive.  Browse, on the other hand, is weak. The world is divided into Applications and Games.  Games has the following categories: “All”, “Arcade & Action”, “Brain & Puzzle”, “Cards & Casino”, and “Casual” – no sports, racing, music, RPG, strategy, or pretty much anything after the letter C. Once browsing, you must sort, either by Most Popular or Newest. This means that once popular, something will stay popular.  There’s no way to sort, or filter, or even view simple things like “most popular this week”, or “highest rated” or anything else. This dramatically impacts a user’s ability to find new good apps, since there’s just no view for that.  And this is from Google, the uber-kings of data.

Once you find an app that seems interesting, the next step is trying to decide if you want it / it will work.  Every app has a name, publisher, # of ratings, # of downloads, description, and comments.  NO SCREENSHOTS or anything, but a description.  The comments are sometimes useful, but typically not, as you’ll often see “crashed on my droid” or “new version seems unstable” or some other complaint.  The problem with these kinds of complaints is because of all the different Droid configurations, there’s no way to tell if the comments/ratings apply to your own device.

What Should Google do?

• Explicitly add and require screenshots of all apps
• Allow sorting by more fields (Recently popular, Highest Rated, Most Downloaded, etc)
• Create more categories and/or sub-categories
• Require developers, commentors, and all other data fields to be governed by device type (i.e. allow me to see top-rated apps specifically voted on by Droid Eris users, not all Android users)
• Clean up the Featured Apps interface, as it is really poorly done
• Make the Android Market Website have a “send to my Droid” button (as opposed to the current site, which is inherently worthless)

Part 2: Installing & Updating Apps

The installation process itself is fairly straightforward, once you find an app, you click the big Install button, then you are shown a cryptic screen with a bunch of warnings that you rapidly learn to ignore, then click OK.  My big complaint on this process is the aforementioned “car alarm” warnings.  I make the car alarm analogy because, much like the loud annoying car alarms we hear on random streets at random times, we pay them absolutely no attention anymore.  Which is inherently the opposite objective of a warning!  But with phrases like “Your personal information – read contact data” and “Phone calls – modify phone state”, there’s just no sense behind it.  It might as well show “PC Load Letter” and have the same amount of effectiveness.

My other gripe is on updating apps.  Since we’re still in the early stage of Droid application development, a lot of programmers are pushing frequent updates to their apps. This is great from a “shiny new toy” perspective, but getting annoying from a “stop showing me lots of alerts” perspective.  Also, there’s no way to update multiple apps simultaneously, nor auto-update an app.  And, since most developers at present are not displaying changelogs it’s hard to figure out if the update is worthwhile or not.  Further, it’s very unclear as to whether or not the comments/rating on an app are relative to the most current version or not. Lastly, and most dominant in the category of “how I know this is a Droid and not an iPhone experience,” every time I update an app, I see the warnings about that app. Every. Time.

What Should Google Do?

• Make the warnings less technical sounding and more clear/comprehensible. “Modify phone state” is virtually meaningless to me, whereas “Make a phone call automatically” is pretty clear English.
• Remove all the warnings that are “commonplace” – I inherently assume an app is capable of doing things like connect to the Internet, prevent my phone from sleeping, etc.
• Allow users to “skip” an update, or enable auto-update for any given app.  Also allow users to update all apps.
• Require that all upgrades/new releases of apps have explicit lists of what’s changed since prior version
• Have ratings/comments be associated with both the “overall app” as well as the “current version”.
• Only show the warnings screen when the new version of the app does (important) things that the previous version did not do.  In other words, if I’ve already installed Google Voice, which is capable of Making Phone Calls, and there’s an update to it, I don’t need to re-confirm that I want to allow it to Make More Phone Calls.

Part 3: Buying, Rating, and Uninstalling Apps

For the complaints I’d read, I was surprised at the overall seamlessness of purchasing an app through the Android Marketplace/Google Checkout process. Other than some confusing messaging, the step-by-step process worked the first time through it.  That said, I was disappointed it didn’t autofill any of my personal information (not even my name).  Also, there was a lack of clarity with regards to the fact that my credit card was “saved” by Google Checkout, with no clear way as to how to only do a one-time purchase.

Rating applications is easy, but per my aforementioned comments, needs more criteria.  My rating should get tied to the specific version of the app, and the platform I’m using as well.  Overall the rating/comment system is fairly thin, and could use improvement.

Uninstalling applications from an Android device is one of the more awkward experiences of the system.  There’s no “uninstaller”, instead you navigate back into the Market, find the app in My Downloads, then uninstall from there.  This is mostly awkward because everything else in Droid is either a click-and-drag or a long-click – so the navigation/usage paradigm you learn by using the system all of a sudden doesn’t come into play.  Now in reality I’m being a little dramatic, as once you’ve learned it, it’s easy, but it’s just another example of the kluge-like nature of the marketplace. Then again, if it’s so easy why does it take 9 steps on an eHow page (they don’t show the same path I use, but that’s also kind of the point)?

What Should Google Do?

• Enable one-time payments that do not require saving credit card data!
• Enable payments directly through mobile carriers (this should go straight to my Verizon bill) and/or third parties who work with carriers (for example BOKU, who is one of Stage Two‘s clients, but if anyone thinks I’d write this long a post just to reference a client in parentheses of another point, you clearly have too much time on your hands).
• Moderate user interface “cleanup” and optimization for the checkout process
• Again, fix the rating/comment system.  Include the “this comment was/wasn’t helpful” feature as well
• Put an Uninstaller “app” inside Android, and let the user click-and-hold an app to invoke a menu (would make more sense than the current method anyway)

Conclusion

To be clear: There are some great apps in the Android market (current fave’s: Amazon, Evernote, Twidroid, wpToGo, Shazam, Robo Defense, Advanced Task Killer, Lookout) .  Droid is not a terrible platform. But there are some major user experience gaps today, and based on the seemingly endless list of new Droid devices slated to ship in 2010, improvement must happen soon.  I’m also not a fan of the numerous versions of Droid and the various enhancements built by Motorola, HTC, etc.

While Apple might get criticism for their closed-system nature, it most certainly allows them to build devices with consistently known experiences. Either Google or their manufacturers will need to do the same if they truly want to compete in the SuperDuperSmartyPantsPhone category.

In proper form,I shall now review my own predictions of the iPad from my first two posts on the subject (parts 1 and 2).  Let’s start with…

What I got wrong:

Productivity Apps
I said: “Unlike the Microsoft approach to “ecosystem” – where everything other than the Xbox is able to view and edit Excel spreadsheets – my hunch is the iPad is all about lifestyle, the Internet, and entertainment.  I’d guess there’s a native version of Safari, some kind of simple email and calendaring, and that’s about it.”

In reality: native new version of iWork!

Reaction: I’m pretty surprised by this move. I certainly see the case for casual work-like content creation (make a simple budget, add some numbers, etc), but figured this would be much more of an afterthought. Further, without an input mechanism (camera – more below) beyond the touchscreen, I don’t quite feel the product “fits” as a content creator.

Augmented Reality/Content Creation
I said: “I’d predict there are several native applications and services that provide very cool augmented reality features.  I’m firmly in the camp of one or more cameras on the iPad, and I think Apple will include one or more fun exploits of the concept from the get-go.”

In reality: zero cameras.

Reaction: This is unquestionably the most questionable aspect of the iPad (like how I did that?). There’s one in the Nano, but not here? Just doesn’t make sense to me, nor most of the people I spoke with during and post the event.  My colleague Jim Schaff thinks this is effectively a beancounter’s decision – the numbers were run that showed adding a camera could/would cannibalize from either MacBook or iPhone sales, and thus the camera was dropped.  Other folks I’ve spoken with theorize it’ll show up in a rapid revision of the product (something I don’t agree with, as they had no specific reason to rush the iPad to market, and could easily have waited until it was working).  My other theory here is that it’s not a hardware issue, but a product/software complexity issue, and the overall impact of adding a camera would have created too significant a product development challenge in the short term.  Gotta crawl before ya run.

Hardware ins/outs
I said: “It’ll have the iPod connector, USB, DisplayPort and an SD card slot.  A webcam is highly probably, and I wouldn’t be surprised with an IR interface as well.”

In reality: custom dock connector, USB, no other ports.

Reaction: I’m disappointed at the lack of SD card reader, especially in context of the photo frame use-case.

What I got right:

The name
I said: “iPad”. 

Heavy software emphasis
I said: “Everything that ships on the iPad will be designed completely to work in a touch fashion, or it won’t be included period.  I’m still torn between whether it’ll be a version of OS X or a version of the iPhone OS, but either way, the device will ship with oodles of applicable software, custom-built to be great in gesture, touch, multi-touch, or even by looking at it the right way.”

Closed app infrastructure
I said: “I expect the iPad will sit somewhere between the iPhone, with individually manually approved apps, and the OS X platform.  Based on the reports today that some apps are supposedly already being run on the iPad (of course these reports prove absolutely nothing, as it could either be an updated iPhone with a new OS, or simply another “labs” product running around campus.  but where would modern tech blogging be without unsubstantiated rumor circulation and amplification?) , my leaning is a differentiated version of the iPhone OS, with more leniency in app approval, but still not open. Many will complain, many will profit, and many will love it.”

Single carrier support
I said: “And since the former isn’t very Apple-y, it’s much more likely there’s only one carrier involved” and “It’ll have 3G services built-in.  I’d hope for Verizon, but that limits Apple to its international possibilities.  And there’s no way they’d waste the money on two different 3G chips.”

Note that I’m surprised, but not shocked, that it’s still just AT&T.

Media Slate as product definition
I said: “So picture a device that’s sleek and sexy, can play back movies, TV shows (including live TV), Internet radio (lala), show pictures/slideshows, play simple games (app store), and be otherwise completely entertaining.  It connects from anywhere, has enough internal storage to last a nationwide flight, and is all about fun.  Further, it comes with numerous context access options, including free services, a la carte purchasing/rentals, and subscription options.  It probably also has a Webcam and native iChat support. I’m fairly bullish on this concept, as it seems to fit in with the Apple iLifestyle very well, and makes for a useful product.”

Parting thoughts:

I’m actually going to write another blog post with my specific thoughts on the iPad (and I’m the only guy doing that!).  My quickest reactions are that I’m impressed with the price point, but shocked about the lack of camera.  I think they *will* sell millions of units, and it’ll be more compelling to a more mainstream audience than many others think, though I still find flaws in the overall offering.  In reality, this device is actually a very good alternate “home computer” for the average person who only needs web surfing, email, media playback, and entertainment. It’s certainly more compelling than a Netbook.

For some final fun, here’s the blog post I wrote predicting roughly this device. Of course that was back in July 2007.

The other day I surmised on what the iPad (still calling it that – it’s the shortest option) might be, as a device.  With only three days left to go prior to launch, I still find myself pondering the “how do they build something at the right price point that’s useful beyond the context of novelty and/or on the commode?” question. While many are going gaga over pretty much anything that could come out, I in my stubborn fashion still just can’t conceptualize what we are about to see.  Of course I’m effectively ready to pre-order it, but I still can’t piece it all together in my head.  So as the follow-up to what might the product be, I thought I’d amble on about what I don’t think we’ll see…

Hardware without software
One of my general rants about Tablet PCs is the lack of compelling software.  Sure Microsoft splashed some “touch features” across the OS, but for the most part it’s a trainwreck.  Apple won’t do this. Everything that ships on the iPad will be designed completely to work in a touch fashion, or it won’t be included period.  I’m still torn between whether it’ll be a version of OS X or a version of the iPhone OS, but either way, the device will ship with oodles of applicable software, custom-built to be great in gesture, touch, multi-touch, or even by looking at it the right way.

Niche or otherwise narrow market scoped
I stated in my last post that a possible product category is just a heads-on Kindle killer.  I’d characterize this as a small opportunity – yes, it’s been great for Amazon, but the market for “better than Kindle e-readers” is small. The only small product Apple still ships is the Apple TV, which they’ve characterized as a hobby product (and rightfully so) from day one.  Granted they haven’t actually said anything about the iPad yet, but their PR machine is too smart to let this much buzz build up and fall that short.  Then again, if this thing doesn’t come with an espresso maker and difribulator, some people are going to be disappointed.

An open platform

Focused on productivity
Unlike the Microsoft approach to “ecosystem” – where everything other than the Xbox is able to view and edit Excel spreadsheets – my hunch is the iPad is all about lifestyle, the Internet, and entertainment.  I’d guess there’s a native version of Safari, some kind of simple email and calendaring, and that’s about it.  I think Apple doesn’t have any interest in trying to build buzz or sales into the corporate world, and will instead stay close to their home turf with consumer appeal.  I’d go so far as to say it’ll be fun to use, and the new user experience will center entirely around delivering entertaining content.

Support every mobile carrier
Okay, this is one of those “I think I’m right, but what if they really figured it out???” things (Google didn’t really, and they’ve got some smarty folks too).  Supporting all the US carriers is cost prohibitively “impossible” – you’d need a minimum of 2 different antennas/chips and the relationships in place.  Doing this adds to cost, which is transferred somewhere (consumers), and for the most part neither manufacturers nor consumers like to have “wasteful” componentry.  Which means it’s much more likely there’s either multiple SKUs, or only one carrier.  And since the former isn’t very Apple-y, it’s much more likely there’s only one carrier involved – or none at all (which makes some sense, if this were 1997).  Further, this gets messy when we consider Verizon, the best network in the US, as their CDMA platform is unused in Europe, a place where Apple sells a lot of stuff.

I could probably add a few more pages of the what I don’t think will happen variety, but they start getting less interesting in my own opinion (5 colors of iPads! – not).  I did have one more “I’ll bet they do” item, which is…

Embrace Augmented Reality Even More
Lots of hot trends in the technosphere, from Twitter to FourSquare, from App Stores to Cloud Computing.  But Augmented Reality is actually an interesting one, has more usefulness than others, and is right up Apple’s alley.  I’d predict there are several native applications and services that provide very cool augmented reality features.  I’m firmly in the camp of one or more cameras on the iPad, and I think Apple will include one or more fun exploits of the concept from the get-go.  I don’t know if it’ll be as awe-inspiring as PlayGunman, our amazing lasertag on iPhone game, but hopefully it’ll be close (disclosure – I’m extremely involved in it. also, I’m joking around – if Apple can’t make our game look like Adventure on the 2600, I’d be stunned. and it’s not like our guys are slackers, but it’s freaking Apple).  Apple will definitely do some kind of boundary-pushing move with this device, and I’d hunch that augmented reality is one of the areas they could truly make us think a little differently.

If you follow gadgets or new tech and you are not aware that Apple is introducing “something” next Wednesday, you are either (1) my wife or mother or (2) awaking from a long long sleep. Now along with virtually anything Apple does, or contemplates doing, or doesn’t contemplate doing but others contemplate on their behalf, the rumor mill on this “iPad” is just out of control.  Not a day has gone by this week, and probably the week prior, where numerous stories on TechMeme centered on the speculated device.  My turn.

I’ve tried to think about this entirely with the following perspective:

1. Tablets, as we think of them today, suck (unless you are in a very specific niche, or perhaps a crazed fanboy).
2. Steve Jobs does not like to ship suck-y products.
3. Apple does not focus on niche markets.
4. Some of the rumors we’ve seen are likely correct (a million monkeys on a million keyboards…).
5. Apple will still likely do one or more things nobody’s even hazarded a guess at.

So with that in mind, what is Apple up to?

Some more assumptions:

• It’ll have 3G services built-in.  I’d hope for Verizon, but that limits Apple to its international possibilities.  And there’s no way they’d waste the money on two different 3G chips.
• It’ll have a “built-for iPad” program at launch.  Still nothing from Droid on this front, but you can bet that Griffin, Case Logic, Kensington, and all the other players will have cases and other accessories coming to market extremely soon.
• It’ll have the iPod connector, USB, DisplayPort and an SD card slot.  A webcam is highly probably, and I wouldn’t be surprised with an IR interface as well.
• It might have some clever method of charging (magnetic induction).

Here are some thoughts on the product itself, in no particular order:

• Sub $300 e-reader + tablet: How about if Apple directly takes on the Kindle, and throws in a great version of Safari, and a Verizon 3G connection?  They sell it at cost, give it a beautiful touch-screen, make it all iPhone-y, but keep it as a simple device.  At this price point it does compete with the iPod Touch, technically, but not in reality, as they are such vastly different products.  We know from the Kindle’s success that there’s a market for the category, and we know that the Nooks and Sonys of the world won’t stand a chance versus Apple and Amazon as the category leaders.  In the “what seems kinda possible and stands a chance at selling in the millions” way of thinking, this is definitely a contender.  Not as sexy as some other options, but possible.
• Detachable MacBook screen: I’ve come back to this one a few times, as it seems to fit “the world we know” fairly well. What if instead of it being a whole new device, Apple upgrades all MacBooks to have touchscreens that are detachable.  In other words, the keyboard part of the laptop comes off.  It would require some fairly sophisticated engineering to pull off, as the bulk of the computer itself is in the keyboard area, but if anyone’s going to do it.  I think it’s a bit farfetched, but only because I can’t conjure up the physical realities that would be required for it to work.
• Mac “Accessory”: Had an interesting chat about this concept the other day – basically it’s the idea that the tablet is a remote desktop viewing device that lets a user log in to another Mac elsewhere on the Internet.  It would probably have an internal Web browser as well, and some simple other features, but effectively it’s a “dumb terminal” for a more powerful computer.  And in a coup de grace Applesque way to do things, it would probably let you log into a Windows 7 computer as well (assuming you got the right drivers installed, of course).  I don’t think this is a strong possibility, as it doesn’t seem mass-market enough, but it would become a really interesting competitor to a netbook in regards to being a “disposable computer”.
• Media Slate: So picture a device that’s sleek and sexy, can play back movies, TV shows (including live TV), Internet radio (lala), show pictures/slideshows, play simple games (app store), and be otherwise completely entertaining.  It connects from anywhere, has enough internal storage to last a nationwide flight, and is all about fun.  Further, it comes with numerous context access options, including free services, a la carte purchasing/rentals, and subscription options.  It probably also has a Webcam and native iChat support. I’m fairly bullish on this concept, as it seems to fit in with the Apple iLifestyle very well, and makes for a useful product.

Those are all good, and nice safe bets.  I don’t think I’ve hazarded guesses that others haven’t.  But now I’ll (try to) get more interesting.

• What if the entire device were touch-sensitive? Front AND back.  Fully gesture enabled, not just multi-touch but multi-hand.  Remember, one of the things that makes tablets suck is figuring out how to hold it right – so let’s assume they “magic mouse” the whole thing, and made it smart enough to figure out the difference between the “holding hand” and the rest of it.
• What if it’s a flexible display instead? Okay, this is probably stuck in the in my dreams category, but it would be crazy impressive if they skip the whole concept of a tablet and move the industry up a notch with a flex display.
• What if there’s a built-in pico projector? Going on the “media slate” theory, but kicking into gear the concept of “fun for the whole family”.  Also doubles-up as a productivity device for showing presentations.

And lastly…

What if there’s no tablet?

Seriously, it’s a real possibility.  What if instead of showing us a tablet, they show a 4G iPhone and impressive updates to other devices (or not)?  What if they announce media streaming services instead?  We all know Apple plays their own game, and if they haven’t figured out how to make this thing magical, I don’t think they’d want to ship it.  It would be a bit of an odd strategy, as there seem to be a few too many pseudo-confirmed rumors, but then again, Apple doesn’t deal with terrorists rumors.  It’s a possibility…

There’s an interesting analysis at VentureBeat hypothesizing that Google Checkout is to blame for poor Droid App sales. My theory on why Droid users aren’t purchasing apps is because we (I have an HTC Droid Eris) are simply not trained to spend money on things the way iPhone users are.  While there are a lot of things that can be done to improve the overall Droid Market experience (this warrants it’s own post), I think it’s more of a cultural issue.  Google has trained us all so well to expect everything to be free, that I think this culture extends to the Droid experience.

First, let’s take the opposite perspective, and start with the iPhone.  The iPhone operates in many ways as an extension of the iTunes/iPod experience.  iPod owners have been trained for years to expect to spend $0.99 per “thing”.  It’s actually quite amazing how much Apple has changed the value of a dollar (much as Starbucks has changed the value of three dollars by equating it with a latte).  As users became accustomed to getting something for a buck, the App Store simply ushered in a new category of what you can get for a buck.  This is actually bad for pretty much everyone in every established industry (especially gaming), and I think has created a highly unsustainable economic model (again, a topic for another post, but in a nutshell think “the visible hand” forcing in the price of a dollar).  At the end of the day, the model on the iPhone app store has an average price set at $.99, and free is not the “Default” way of getting an app out.

For a second example, I’ll point to all the dumbphones out there. People spend literally billions of dollars with add-ons to these phones.  These come in the form of ringtones, ring-back tones, wallpapers, and yes, Apps.  On my old Samsung Alias I had purchased several games (including the worst version of Stratego I’ve ever seen), and none of them were a mere $0.99.  Why? First, there’s a walled garden of content, the carriers highly control what apps get to what phones, and for how much.  Second, the carriers are taking a huge piece of that action, so they are highly incentivized to not let apps get cheap. This model is equally unsustainable, as supply is highly regulated and with unregulated options (Droid, iPhone, etc) now on the market, consumers will opt for those alternatives that have both better performance and cheaper apps.

Now, more poignantly, taking a specific look at the Android Market. The user interface is terrible. Searching sucks (especially considering it’s powered by Google of all people!). There’s no control whatsoever as to which apps get in. Apps are known to crash your phone. Further, there’s only a fraction of “big name” publishers involved. There’s no clarity as to how you actually buy something. And with the fracturing of Android as a platform, not all apps are even guaranteed to run on a given phone! It’s as if the entire experience was “in beta”, only nobody’s overseeing the process.

So now onto Google and Free Stuff.  On the Internet, most things are free. Even really really good things, like real-time traffic maps, multiplayer gaming, web site traffic statistics and analysis, email, etc.  While I view companies such as Yahoo and Wired as the pioneers in delivering consumers free things that they really ought to have paid for, Google is the all time world champion at making valuable things valueless.  So what happens when Team Free delivers a phone with an App Store? It becomes the Free App Store.

Now I trust that you don’t exactly need to be Michelangelo to paint the above picture.  Combine the backlash against the appearance of “unjust” economics around paid-for models with the poor experience of buying an app (which may or may not work) with a huge proponent of making everything free, and you’ve got the Droid Market as it stands today.  And I don’t see any “big picture” stuff that’s going to change this anytime soon.

All of them.

Wired claims 2010 is the year of the tablet. Let’s face it, however much they sound dreamy (even I’ve speculated on wanting one in the past), in practical reality tablets generally suck.  They are both a worse laptop than a laptop, and a worse touch-input device than a piece of paper I can scan with my cheapo HP all-in-one printer/scanner/fax/sock darner combo device.  So this is my “I don’t care what they say in the focus group, nobody’s buying your crappy tablet” intervention blog post.

Tablets suck at handwriting recognition. The dream of a touch-screen is you can easily edit/mark up your documents, and, as if by magic, the edits transform into your Word doc in a useful manner.  Instead you get edts tht looh lik ths, intermixed with the occasional number and odd symbol.

Tablets suck to carry around. It’s too big for your pocket, and probably too big for your murse.  Which means you need a laptop bag.  Which means you might as well carry a… laptop.

Tablets make you tired. The ergonomic problems with a laptop are bad enough. Where am I going to carry the tablet such that constant use doesn’t get exhausting?  The only worse user interface is the full hand motion system from Minority Report. Seriously, have you seen Tom Cruise’s biceps? they got huge after *that* movie!

Tablets can’t share nicely with others. So let’s pretend your tablet comes with some fancy new visual editing tool.  Well, how do you get that useful data back to the other 99.9% of people you have to interact with?  PDF?  I don’t think so.  Although I do assume that Apple would make some proprietary app that *would* work well, but that’s not the point.

Tablets suck at hiding smudges. The spittle residue on my MacBook screen is fairly intense.  I can’t imagine how my greasy french-fry-eating fingers are going to make any tablet look.  And yes, I’ve seen your iPhone, and I carry wipes around just so I don’t have to put it next to my head.  Gross.

Tablets are bad Web browsers. I still applaud the CrunchPad team for their hard work, but I have no idea why anyone thinks surfing a Web page on a tablet with fingers is better, easier, or faster than doing the same with my laptop.  Ditto for anyone else’s tablet.  Plus, when I have to input anything, which is always, I don’t really want a virtual keyboard that will, by definition, work worse than the one on my laptop.

Tablets are priced poorly. What’s the “magic” price point for this thing?  $200? No way it’ll be any good.  $800? Buy a MacBook.  $500? Buy a 3G NetBook.  There is no price point that makes sense, other than as a gimmicky product for those with too much money lying around.  Who will, for the record, all purchase one as soon as they come out.

Tablets suck at everything else. IM? Won’t work well. Video chat? Won’t work well. Spreadsheets? Nope.  About the only other thing a tablet will be good at is a finger painting application, which my 2-year-old would love.  For about 5 minutes until his short attention span moves onto the cardboard box he was playing with yesterday. Oh, and FreeCell – a tablet would be a killer FreeCell device.  Awesome.

So there you have it.  Sorry teams Apple TouchBook, CrunchPad, Windows Tablet Home Premium Ultimate 7 Edition (service pack 8), I know there is crazy hard work and tremendous effort going on in the labs.  But I think until literally all of the above problems are solved, this is a non-category.

But if you do figure it out, I’m buying!

I’ve been told I’m a ‘long format blogger’ – most of my posts are fairly long (typically overly so). As a result my posts tend to take a while to write, which means I need to block out (too much) time to get them up.  And I seem to have less and less free time all the time these days, plus by the time I’m writing something, it seems like a thousand others have already written something related to what I’d write.  While I know I shouldn’t feel biased by others’ writings, at the end of the day I feel that if I’m not saying something original, what’s the point?

So in an effort to get some thoughts across, I’m going to try to do the occasional “roundup” post on a few topics all at once.  This is the first of said posts.

1. Rock Band, Beatles Edition
   I’m not sure which game I’m more excited about, this or Modern Warfare 2.  I love The Beatles music, and I love Rock Band, so that’s a huge win. Plus I like the idea of a non-hard core version of Rock Band.  If you haven’t seen the preview, check it out here:
2. Social Gaming
   The new enhancements to the Xbox Dashboard include integration with Facebook and Twitter.  I have a feeling most of the features will be overkill and rarely used by the majority of Xbox owners, but there is a clear improvement needed to integrating social networking and gaming.  The key missing element in my opinion is an easier way to find your friends within the Xbox Live experience.  Hopefully direct integration with the services I use for networking will help me find and connect with people in my gaming world.
3. beeTV
   A startup raised another $8 million to provide recommendations for watching TV shows.  This is now 10 consecutive years of me watching companies try to enter this space and fail.  Further, these guys are doing deals with cable and set-top companies, two segments notoriously perilous for relying on for a business to succeed.  Who knows, maybe these guys will find that magic touch, but my hunch is (a) there isn’t a real problem in this space, and (b) making a sustainable income stream will be extremely challenging.
4. Crunchpad
   I applaud the crunch team for their efforts on building the Crunchpad.  But I have concerns over the device itself.  First, the market – I don’t see a web tablet (at any price) effectively replacing a laptop for simple surfing, it doesn’t make sense.  Second, the usage – it’s either going to be tiring to hold it up, or it goes into the lap, which again, brings the laptop back into the scene.  Ultimately I see it as a “bread machine” type of gadget (purchased, used for a little while, then slowly migrating out of daily life until it gets regifted). I’ll be curious to see what comes of it.
5. Palm Pre
   Reviews are saying it’s solid. Sprint’s said they anticpate a shortage. I believe both statements are accurate.  But I also believe it will never supplant the iPhone or BlackBerry, and I also believe the initial orders placed by Sprint are in low volumes relative to those products.  I think the product is probably going to be pretty solid, but I think it’s too-little, too-late for Palm.  I know back in the day I didn’t think people would switch to AT&T for the iPhone (I was wrong), but I can’t imagine iPhone people switching to Sprint for the Pre.  Maybe I’ll be wrong again…

Well, that’s my first attempt at a “ripped from the headlines” kind of post.  Feedback, comments, and spirited debate are very welcome.

I’ll summarize my long-winded (but well-adorned) post on the Kindle by saying: solid device, don’t like the spending model around eBooks.  While the ultimate solution for digital music and video is obviously based around subscription businesses, it’s not so clear for books.  Fundamentally the book industry has a long way to go before it truly gets threatened by the digital book industry (though clearly they shouldn’t wait forever).

I buy a lot of used books myself (on Amazon I rarely spend more than $6, shipping included, for any given book I buy). I’ve been pondering quite a bit on how to make a “used” eBook model work, and I think for a closed system like the Kindle, it’s a real possibility.  Unlike MP3s, for example, which can be duplicated perfectly infinite times, a book “file” on the Kindle has a unique code, and all Kindles are “registered” to talk to Amazon’s servers.  In other words, there’s no such thing as a “copy”, just an individual “instance”. As a result, when a single “new copy” of an eBook is sold, it’s instance is known forever.  Therefore, just as in paper books, there are a finite number of copies in existence, although unlike paper books, Amazon knows exactly where they all are.

How it works…
So what if, after reading a book, the reader could choose to “sell it back” to Amazon?  After all, when I get a paper book I can do just that (or give it to a friend), and neither Amazon nor the publisher mind terribly that I do (otherwise the used bookstore industry would be illegal).  And what if by selling it back, the original reader could get a modest credit, say $2, for use exclusively on the Kindle store.  Not much money, but it basically implies that at $9.99 per book, you get 1 free with every 5 you buy.

By selling the book, the original reader’s Kindle deletes the file, and somewhere in the Amazon servers, one new “instance” of a “used copy” of that particular title is available for purchase. Now, some other Kindle owner can browse the title, see the used copy, and buy it.  No matter what there are no extra copies being made.  This is key, because the natural cycles of supply and demand will still force new copies to get sold. In fact, this would mimic a highly efficient economic model that does not presently exist in the Kindle landscape (where buying a popular title, say Angels and Demons, costs $7.99, whereas the used paperback is selling for $0.01).

Money stuff…
I’d price the used copy at $6.99, though obviously it could be higher or lower, but that seemed like a fair price.  Also, the “resale credit” for the used book would have to be less, call it $1 per copy.  For the last part of our system to work, Amazon would pay an additional royalty to the publisher at $3.01 per used copy (that number explained later).  As our first “why this is important” story – publishers would be generating revenue from used books, something they’ve never done before.  In fact, an individual book sale becomes a recurring revenue stream, rather than a one-off sale (nightmare for the accountants, but a plus to everyone else).

Next reason why it matters? It turns out Amazon actually loses money on every new copy sold ($3.01 per book – sound familiar?).  With the used sales, Amazon would turn a profit on a title after 2 resales ($6.99 – $3.01 to the publisher – $2 to the user = $1.98 to Amazon).  After 10 resales, both Amazon and the publisher have profited (yes, it’s all profit) an additional $20 each for the title.

But wait one second young man!
Which leaves us in the inevitable problem area of the model.  It’s that unpredictable area that makes the math a wee bit hard without more data.  The question arises: how will this impact the sales of new eBooks?  Well, no, that’s the wrong question (albeit it’s the one that would/does stop anything like this from happening).  The right question is: how will this impact the overall profitability of selling eBooks?

The important part here is: it makes no difference to the publisher!  If used sales cannibalize new sales in any way, the publisher makes the same amount of money as they did before (assuming the market size doesn’t change).  Further, the more the used sales do cannibalize from new sales, the more profitable the market is for Amazon.   For example, if a given title would sell 100K copies new on Kindle, there’s $301K in revenue to the publisher, and $301K in costs to Amazon.  If 50% of the copies were “used”, then the publisher still makes $301K, but Amazon now only loses $51500 (roughly).  Now that’s some dot-com revenue thinking for you!

But wait, it gets even more interesting!
Let’s pretend that due to the combination of reduced costs and users earning credits for selling the books back into the system, there’s an overall increase in purchasing.  I can’t prove it, but it sure seems likely if you think about it (or make an excel spreadsheet like I did).  If used sales bump the overall market up by 5%, the same 100K title sends an extra $7500 to the publisher and reduces Amazon’s losses by about $5000 (at the 50% cannibalization rate).  If the market bumps 20%, Amazon halves their loss, and the publisher is up a total of $30K.

While we’re at it, if cannibalization gets to 60%, Amazon is now profiting (instead of, in case I didn’t make it very very clear, losing money every time their customer buys their product).

Not too shabby there, Mr Toeman.
I’m sure I’m missing some details here.  There are agreements I don’t know about.  There are market sizing issues I’m unaware of.  I don’t know how price-sensitive Kindle users really are.  It might be, you know, illegal due to some nonsense in the DMCA (yeah, I’m not a fan, amazing, eh?).  Also, it’s clear that current pricing for eBooks is in flux, and who knows where things will end up.

But it sure makes sense both economically and practically speaking.  In fact it’s one of those barriers that I believe prevents wider adoption of the Kindle.  Not the lack of a used eBook section, but the inability to do something with a book once you are done with it.  I’d love to be able to “gift” an eBook to a friend once I’m done with it.  Plus I think it’s a model that just “feels right” to those of us who wouldn’t throw out money on new copies of hardcover books.  Or cars, while I’m at it, as there is no single worse use of your money than buying a new car.  Well, you could set it on fire, I suppose, but that’s just plain silly.

I’ve always detested one (or two) thing(s) about my iphone. My primary moan? Why not make the landscape keyboard more widely available? On a scale from 1 to 10, using a portrait keyboard to type emails on an iPhone is immensely sucky.

Apple made landscape work in Safari; if you’re in the browser and have to type (in the URL, or in a form) the keyboard pops up in landscape mode. This means the keys are bigger, more widely spaced, and significantly easier to tap. This is good usability. In either SMS or email mode, I can only use the portrait keyboard. This is poor usability. Given the fact that the capability exists, I can’t see any reason not to make the functionality universally available.

Lots of people told me that I’d get used to the keyboard if I gave it enough time. They were wrong. It sucks. It sucked a year and a half ago, and it sucks now too. Hence my joy, my excitement, my joie de iPhone that Firemail exists. Firemail is an application available in the App store that lets a user type emails with a landscape keyboard. Lawdy lawdy, I thought the day would never come. The folks at Conceited Software are to thank for this handy piece of code. Let me do so now. Thank you Conceited Software. Try not to let it go to your head. Pun intended.

Now, the mechanics of the thing are not entirely ideal. In order to write these blessedly quick and easy to type emails, you have to load Firemail from your homescreen, not the email app. When the app opens you will be able to compose a subject and message. Once done with your composition you can save a draft (called a bookmark) or send to email. This is great for writing a new email. But what about replying to old emails? That too is possible, here’s how:

• Open your email app
• Open an email
• Hit reply
• Hit the home button
• Open Firemail
• Draft your response
• Select “Send to Mobile Mail”
• Boom shaka laka. Your email is now a reply to the email you were reading before.

I didn’t even know you could do this till I read a couple other reviews of this app. iPhone Hacks put a great one together, and so did Ben Boychuck at Macworld. Personally, I think it’s a very strong app, and it has a place on my homescreen. I do wish it integrated a little more seamlessly with the iPhone email, but it’s a very solid app and allows me to do something that’s frustrated me since my very first week with the iPhone.

The app used to be free – it was free when I downloaded it a couple months ago. Now they charge 99 cents for it, and I think it’s definitely worth that fee. It turns iPhone email from something frustrating and terrible into something that’s reasonably not sucky. If I were forced to give Firemail a numeric rating between 1 and 10, I’d call it a 7.

This entry is also posted at 1TO10REVIEWS.

Firemail demo on 12seconds.tv

I’ve been thinking about a bluetooth headset for a long time.  Since I got my iPhone, I’ve almost exclusively used the included iPod headphones / speakerphone to talk with other people.  But it tangles often and it’s starting to get worn out – the rubber on the earpieces has rubbed off completely.  :(  That combined with the California headset law (and the joy of playing with new toys) convinced me to try to go blue.  Eric Benderoff’s review of several top bluetooth headsets gave me a little background, and the pure sex appeal of the Jawbone II gave me a starting place.

There are a lot of different possible categories from which to assess a gadget like this: form factor, simplicity of use, pairing ability, sound quality, battery life, durability, cost…  I don’t often write really analytical reviews which numerically asses and assign rankings to devices, but this time I plan to for the sake time and conveneience.  Elsewise this review will ramble, extensively.  Long.

I will rank each of the above categories with a numeric ranking between 1 and 10 (naturally) and then average out the scores.  By doing this I am essentially saying 1.) that each of the chosen categories have equal weighting, and 2.) that other possible categories (say, color) do not factor into my assessment.  Those are both true things, so take my review with the appropriate grains of sodium hydrochloride.

Form Factor: 10 (this is a sexy looking gadget, slim, black, ribbed and fancy)

Simplicity of Use: 7 (as bluetooths go, it’s pretty easy to start, pair, adjust and figure out what’s happening)

Pairing Ability: 7 (turn it on, and turn on bluetooth on your phone – they just seem to find each other)

Sound Quality: 6 (I can hear people OK.  When I need to turn the volume up high, it seems to get a little fuzzy.  People can hear me OK.  Not great, but OK.  This might be due to poor pairing, or simply the nature of the device. )

Battery Life: 6 (battery life seems to be about what you’d expect, or just a hair better.  I seem to get about 2-3 hours of active talk time.  If it sits idle on a full charge for a couple days, I can still use it.  If it sits idle after a full charge for 5 or 6 days, not so good. )

Durability: 4 (the device body seems to be fairly compact and well made, I expect it will last as well as anything else out there.  The ear pieces are another issue.  As you’ll see in the pictures below, one of my stems broke.  Jawbone is kind enough to package multiple stems [for differently sized and shaped heads / ears] so I had a backup, even though it’s a suboptimal size.  I did NOT mishandle nor manhandle the ear piece – just rotated it as it’s designed to be rotated, and the little sucker just snapped.  Boy was I irritated. )

Cost: 4 (this is a pricey little sucker.  I’ve seen it at the T-Mobile store for as little as $99, and at a Verizon store for $129.  If you shop around you’ll find it for somewhere over $100.

If we assume that each of the above categories carrie an equal weighting, then the score on the Jawbone II bluetooth headset comes out to 6.29 (10+7+7+6+6+4+4=6.2857147)

I like this device’s style and simplicity.  It’s elegant, pretty, fairly easy to use, and the it sounds good.  Not “oh my god holy crap” amazing, but it sounds good.  The cost of the unit, and the fact that the stem broke in the manner it did are both very offputting for me though, and they are the biggest limiting factors in my estimation.  That particular pair of issues (high cost with questionable durability) is expecially disagreeable.  I’ll be interested to see if/how the company responds to my customer service request.  If they do, I will update this post.

Forced to give a numeric rating between 1 and 10, this device averaged out to a 6.29.

This review is also available at 1TO10REVIEWS.