LIVEdigitally

My music collection appears frozen in time somewhere in the mid-90s.

Despite knowing a boatload about them, I rarely buy new gadgets, almost never replacement gadgets (which is fitting in quite nicely to my shift in living a more sustainable lifestyle).

I use Office XP/NeoOffice (OXP is much, much better, but I don’t quite feel like booting up parallels all the time). The ribbon sucks.

I write long blog posts…

I was talking with Robert Scoble this weekend about blogging, FriendFeed, Twitter, online communities, and, of course, potty training.  On the call I mentioned one of my greatest stumbling blocks to writing a blog post is that as I research a given topic, I tend to find others have said the same thing I was planning to say (put enough monkeys in front of a keyboard…), and as a result don’t feel I’m adding more value, and tend to drop the post.  As constant readers have noticed, this has caused a drop-off in my blogging.

The problem for me is I really like the 5-7 paragraph “long post” format.  2-3 paragraphs aren’t enough for me to set things up the way I like, and I try to generally make some kind of point when I blog.  I’m actually fairly proud of some of the posts I’ve written over the years.  But these days I find it hard to muster the energy to get a “quality” post together.

I’ve experimented with some “roundup” posts - to good feedback, thanks!  So I’m going to try some more “quick blast” short form posts. 1-2 paragraphs on a given topic I encounter.  Don’t worry, I’m not planning to lifestream, just give more content with quick thoughts, opinions, and commentary on more things.

I’ll still keep the yawners flowing from time to time, but hopefully this will kick my butt into being a bit more regular with the ol LD.

Kinda enjoying the “wrapup” post concept.  I feel less pressure to blog, and take a bit more time to collect my thoughts (instead of jumping on board any given meme as it happens).  Would definitely like to know from my reader(s?) if this is harder content to consume than more frequent, shorter posts.

Dell Buying Palm

This rumor’s been floating for a while. At the Building43/TechCrunch party I was told it was a certainty, though the NY Times thinks it’ll never happen.  At this stage in the mobile game, I think Palm does need an acquisition if it wants to survive as a big player, either that or needs a drastic overhaul/downsizing until they think like a startup again (which really is the position they are in). Dell’s a decent suitor, though I’d doubt they’d really escalate the brand to the level it needs.  I’d rather see a merger with Motorola’s mobile group, as they have the true infrastructure needed to compete at the high stakes table, and could really use an injection of creativity and new technology (no more RAZRs guys).

Facebook URLs

This whole week Facebook did a replay of Oklahama in the late 1800s (including allowing “key journalists” in sooner than us lame users). The stats last night were impressive, though I’m still sitting here scratching my head on the whole thing a little.  I’m assuming FB plans to do some serious SEO work, enabling those who grabbed useful terms like “carpenter” (no, I don’t know that guy) to generate a little business out of them. That said, some useful terms like “sanfranciscosushi” are still up for grabs, so enterprising folks should put their creative hats on and get going.  I didn’t take my name yet (having a unique name makes that kinda easy) because I just don’t get the value to me personally.  Googling Jeremy Toeman always gets me, as does the first page or two for just Toeman.  Not to say I didn’t try a few names to see how they’d feel…

nah… not quite right.

Building43

My friend Robert Scoble started working at Rackspace (the place where we host Legacy Locker, btw) a few months back, and he’s been dropping hints about this “Building43″ thing for a while now.  This week he formally unveiled it during the TechCrunch 4th birthday party down in Palo Alto.  First and foremost, thanks Robert and Mike for some amazingly good BBQ food - oh, and your contributions to the tech industry blah blah blah ;). So Building43 is designed as a resource for entrepreneurs and big companies alike to participate and gain feedback and insight from the tech community at large.  It’s an ambitious goal, and I wish them a lot of luck.  My biggest advice to them is to really focus on the user experience, as right now I found the site a little confusing to navigate (despite my personal familiarity with all the technologies they are using, like FriendFeed).  If it’s tough for me to find things, I can’t imagine what it’s like for those new to it.

Project Natal

Microsoft introduced “Project Natal” at E3, and there’s a rumor circulating that instead of thinking of it as a new component to the Xbox 360, it might be its own console. I love the idea of using motion capture as a video game controller (or remote control or any other kind of interface), but I think that’s where my love ends. As an idea.  Here’s the issue - it’s not good enough if it’s 99% accurate. Why?  Because the 1 time in 100 that you shoot instead of duck, or block instead of jump, or whatever mistake it makes is going the about the last time you play seriously.  Fundamental to every good user interface is absolutely perfectly reliable controls, with proper feedback mechanisms to the user.  With a motion controller, the moment the game doesn’t do what you wanted it to do, it’s all over.  Trust is lost, and the “magic moment” is replaced by dislike, then eventually anger. I saw a tweet that I think encapsulated the issue perfectly: “Project Natal is headed to the uncanny valley.”

Content Consumption

I recently realized I don’t read any blogs anymore.  I do a lot of searching.  I follow some folks on Twitter and/or FriendFeed.  But I almost never just go to sites like Engadget or TechCrunch nor friends of mine like Dave Zatz or Michael Gartenberg and just read.  And based on looking at the analytics for many of my clients’ web sites, I’m thinking I’m very much not alone.  There’s too much content, and just not enough ways to organize it.  If I were an enterprising lad, I’d be spending a lot of time figuring out how to help people deal with content overload in a very useful manner.  The right tool needs to combine all the potential sources a user wants, and give lots of ways to customize and filter it.  Google Reader isn’t enough, nor is FriendFeed, nor is Facebook.  I’ve got a hunch there’s a lot of opportunity for an excellent “get signal out of my noise” service, and it’s probably something people would pay for.

Have a great weekend everyone, I’m heading back to toil in the garden where I can be really productive.

I’ve been told I’m a ‘long format blogger’ - most of my posts are fairly long (typically overly so). As a result my posts tend to take a while to write, which means I need to block out (too much) time to get them up.  And I seem to have less and less free time all the time these days, plus by the time I’m writing something, it seems like a thousand others have already written something related to what I’d write.  While I know I shouldn’t feel biased by others’ writings, at the end of the day I feel that if I’m not saying something original, what’s the point?

So in an effort to get some thoughts across, I’m going to try to do the occasional “roundup” post on a few topics all at once.  This is the first of said posts.

1. Rock Band, Beatles Edition
   I’m not sure which game I’m more excited about, this or Modern Warfare 2.  I love The Beatles music, and I love Rock Band, so that’s a huge win. Plus I like the idea of a non-hard core version of Rock Band.  If you haven’t seen the preview, check it out here:
2. Social Gaming
   The new enhancements to the Xbox Dashboard include integration with Facebook and Twitter.  I have a feeling most of the features will be overkill and rarely used by the majority of Xbox owners, but there is a clear improvement needed to integrating social networking and gaming.  The key missing element in my opinion is an easier way to find your friends within the Xbox Live experience.  Hopefully direct integration with the services I use for networking will help me find and connect with people in my gaming world.
3. beeTV
   A startup raised another $8 million to provide recommendations for watching TV shows.  This is now 10 consecutive years of me watching companies try to enter this space and fail.  Further, these guys are doing deals with cable and set-top companies, two segments notoriously perilous for relying on for a business to succeed.  Who knows, maybe these guys will find that magic touch, but my hunch is (a) there isn’t a real problem in this space, and (b) making a sustainable income stream will be extremely challenging.
4. Crunchpad
   I applaud the crunch team for their efforts on building the Crunchpad.  But I have concerns over the device itself.  First, the market - I don’t see a web tablet (at any price) effectively replacing a laptop for simple surfing, it doesn’t make sense.  Second, the usage - it’s either going to be tiring to hold it up, or it goes into the lap, which again, brings the laptop back into the scene.  Ultimately I see it as a “bread machine” type of gadget (purchased, used for a little while, then slowly migrating out of daily life until it gets regifted). I’ll be curious to see what comes of it.
5. Palm Pre
   Reviews are saying it’s solid. Sprint’s said they anticpate a shortage. I believe both statements are accurate.  But I also believe it will never supplant the iPhone or BlackBerry, and I also believe the initial orders placed by Sprint are in low volumes relative to those products.  I think the product is probably going to be pretty solid, but I think it’s too-little, too-late for Palm.  I know back in the day I didn’t think people would switch to AT&T for the iPhone (I was wrong), but I can’t imagine iPhone people switching to Sprint for the Pre.  Maybe I’ll be wrong again…

Well, that’s my first attempt at a “ripped from the headlines” kind of post.  Feedback, comments, and spirited debate are very welcome.

I’ll summarize my long-winded (but well-adorned) post on the Kindle by saying: solid device, don’t like the spending model around eBooks.  While the ultimate solution for digital music and video is obviously based around subscription businesses, it’s not so clear for books.  Fundamentally the book industry has a long way to go before it truly gets threatened by the digital book industry (though clearly they shouldn’t wait forever).

I buy a lot of used books myself (on Amazon I rarely spend more than $6, shipping included, for any given book I buy). I’ve been pondering quite a bit on how to make a “used” eBook model work, and I think for a closed system like the Kindle, it’s a real possibility.  Unlike MP3s, for example, which can be duplicated perfectly infinite times, a book “file” on the Kindle has a unique code, and all Kindles are “registered” to talk to Amazon’s servers.  In other words, there’s no such thing as a “copy”, just an individual “instance”. As a result, when a single “new copy” of an eBook is sold, it’s instance is known forever.  Therefore, just as in paper books, there are a finite number of copies in existence, although unlike paper books, Amazon knows exactly where they all are.

How it works…
So what if, after reading a book, the reader could choose to “sell it back” to Amazon?  After all, when I get a paper book I can do just that (or give it to a friend), and neither Amazon nor the publisher mind terribly that I do (otherwise the used bookstore industry would be illegal).  And what if by selling it back, the original reader could get a modest credit, say $2, for use exclusively on the Kindle store.  Not much money, but it basically implies that at $9.99 per book, you get 1 free with every 5 you buy.

By selling the book, the original reader’s Kindle deletes the file, and somewhere in the Amazon servers, one new “instance” of a “used copy” of that particular title is available for purchase. Now, some other Kindle owner can browse the title, see the used copy, and buy it.  No matter what there are no extra copies being made.  This is key, because the natural cycles of supply and demand will still force new copies to get sold. In fact, this would mimic a highly efficient economic model that does not presently exist in the Kindle landscape (where buying a popular title, say Angels and Demons, costs $7.99, whereas the used paperback is selling for $0.01).

Money stuff…
I’d price the used copy at $6.99, though obviously it could be higher or lower, but that seemed like a fair price.  Also, the “resale credit” for the used book would have to be less, call it $1 per copy.  For the last part of our system to work, Amazon would pay an additional royalty to the publisher at $3.01 per used copy (that number explained later).  As our first “why this is important” story - publishers would be generating revenue from used books, something they’ve never done before.  In fact, an individual book sale becomes a recurring revenue stream, rather than a one-off sale (nightmare for the accountants, but a plus to everyone else).

Next reason why it matters? It turns out Amazon actually loses money on every new copy sold ($3.01 per book - sound familiar?).  With the used sales, Amazon would turn a profit on a title after 2 resales ($6.99 - $3.01 to the publisher - $2 to the user = $1.98 to Amazon).  After 10 resales, both Amazon and the publisher have profited (yes, it’s all profit) an additional $20 each for the title.

But wait one second young man!
Which leaves us in the inevitable problem area of the model.  It’s that unpredictable area that makes the math a wee bit hard without more data.  The question arises: how will this impact the sales of new eBooks?  Well, no, that’s the wrong question (albeit it’s the one that would/does stop anything like this from happening).  The right question is: how will this impact the overall profitability of selling eBooks?

The important part here is: it makes no difference to the publisher!  If used sales cannibalize new sales in any way, the publisher makes the same amount of money as they did before (assuming the market size doesn’t change).  Further, the more the used sales do cannibalize from new sales, the more profitable the market is for Amazon.   For example, if a given title would sell 100K copies new on Kindle, there’s $301K in revenue to the publisher, and $301K in costs to Amazon.  If 50% of the copies were “used”, then the publisher still makes $301K, but Amazon now only loses $51500 (roughly).  Now that’s some dot-com revenue thinking for you!

But wait, it gets even more interesting!
Let’s pretend that due to the combination of reduced costs and users earning credits for selling the books back into the system, there’s an overall increase in purchasing.  I can’t prove it, but it sure seems likely if you think about it (or make an excel spreadsheet like I did).  If used sales bump the overall market up by 5%, the same 100K title sends an extra $7500 to the publisher and reduces Amazon’s losses by about $5000 (at the 50% cannibalization rate).  If the market bumps 20%, Amazon halves their loss, and the publisher is up a total of $30K.

While we’re at it, if cannibalization gets to 60%, Amazon is now profiting (instead of, in case I didn’t make it very very clear, losing money every time their customer buys their product).

Not too shabby there, Mr Toeman.
I’m sure I’m missing some details here.  There are agreements I don’t know about.  There are market sizing issues I’m unaware of.  I don’t know how price-sensitive Kindle users really are.  It might be, you know, illegal due to some nonsense in the DMCA (yeah, I’m not a fan, amazing, eh?).  Also, it’s clear that current pricing for eBooks is in flux, and who knows where things will end up.

But it sure makes sense both economically and practically speaking.  In fact it’s one of those barriers that I believe prevents wider adoption of the Kindle.  Not the lack of a used eBook section, but the inability to do something with a book once you are done with it.  I’d love to be able to “gift” an eBook to a friend once I’m done with it.  Plus I think it’s a model that just “feels right” to those of us who wouldn’t throw out money on new copies of hardcover books.  Or cars, while I’m at it, as there is no single worse use of your money than buying a new car.  Well, you could set it on fire, I suppose, but that’s just plain silly.

Over on my personal blog I’ve put together a little “compare and contrast” pictography of the ridiculous hypocrisy overflowing in modern society. Ooooh, pictures!

I’ve written in the past regarding why I gave up on mobile email, and have recently entered quite a few entertaining discussions on the topic. In a nutshell, I feel the “mobile email lifestyle” is generally a bad one, typically causing much higher stress levels in people.

Now before everyone reading this on a BlackBerry jumps down my throat, there certainly are some times when mobile email is useful, helpful, and productive. Here’s the list:

• Sitting at your gate/otherwise waiting for a flight (but not, of course, once they’ve told you to turn off your phone, because as of that point you are just being a jerk by leaving it on.  yup, that’s right, a big jerk)
• Waiting for some big deal to close (sorta - you really could do this with the phone, but I’m sure there are times when it would be necessary to have the email interaction)
• Sitting at dinner with really close friends/family

I’m sure there’s a few more exceptions that I’m not thinking of, and I’m okay with that.  For the most part, I see people with BlackBerries and iPhones checking email all.  the.  time. Sure it’s annoying to those of us trying to spend any time with these people, but bad manners are probably just the most superficial of issues.

Constantly “on call”
When you sport a mobile email device, and reply to emails at all hours of the day, night, weekend, etc, you effectively say to your coworkers “I’m always available.”  And by being always available, it becomes harder and harder for you to decide not to be available.  Which leads to bosses/clients/peers sending in emails, expecting near-instant turnaround.  Which effectively means you can get in trouble just by not checking email during dinner.  Personally, I don’t like the idea that “important work stuff” happens at all hours - it doesn’t. And if you aren’t a doctor, firefighter, cop, or other person whose work truly happens at all hours, trust me, you can skip email tonight.

Less responsive to non-essential emails
BlackBerry people love to talk about how easily they can check email, anytime, anywhere.  But they tend to do a much worse job at following through with non-essential emails.  And, since those emails got marked as read right away, they tend to fall to the bottom of the priority list when the user actually gets to a computer.  This is all compounded by the aforementioned issue that we know you read the emails we sent!  Let’s be totally clear here: if you have a BlackBerry or iPhone, we know you get *all* email, and we know you check it right away.  Lost emails are BS, it’s readily apparent that you are actively choosing not to respond to us.

Introduce work time during personal time
It’s not just that you are checking emails while we’re eating dinner, the distraction factor is just a part of it.  It’s that those emails have impact on you and your mood.  And let’s face it, if you are checking emails all evening long, odds are pretty good something will tumble into the inbox that will cause you more stress.  So much for our happy evening, as you are now preoccupied with your work problem.  There’s obviously the counterpoint here about getting some great news, like closing a deal, etc, but those are few and far between (and are much more fun on the phone anyway).  Nothing like finishing up a meal with Mr Grumpypants who just found out some deal isn’t going to close.

Did I mention the bad manners?
I get that we live in the rapid-fire, constant interruptive, crazy overly connected world.  But there is no debate that pulling out a gadget and reading an email while you are engaged in conversation is rude.  Always.  Even if there’s a lull in the chat, it’s not an excuse.  Hang on a sec.

Sorry, I was checking email on my phone while you were waiting for me to finish typing.  Get the point?

It’s with tremendous pride and excitement that I use my first blog post in over a month to announce the launch of Legacy Locker. I’m one of the founders of the site, and I wanted to share a little backstory to where it came from and how it got here.

Two different personal events occured to me in the summer of 2007 that led to the conception of Legacy Locker.  My grandmother unfortunately passed away, but at the age of 94 it’d be hard to say she didn’t live a full life.  She and I used to exchange emails, a pastime of hers she also enjoyed with other friends and family around the world.  My father and I tried to figure out a way to get into her Hotmail account, but had no luck and basically the account is, for all intents and purposes, unavailable.

On a more uplifting side, my wife and I had a son earlier that year, and in the summer sat down with an estate planner to establish a will (did you know in the state of California that if you don’t have a will/estate/trust, probate attorneys will claim 4% of your assets, including your life insurance money?  scam).  Anyhow, after literally hours of discussing my family tree and my various assets (car, 401k, signed Jean Beliveau picture, etc), I had a huge binder: our “estate” (I always pictured something with a mansion).

Last summer on a flight (yup, I remember that well), I had one of those “moments” in life, where I realized that while my physical assets were protected in my estate plan, I had nothing in place to deal with all of my online goods and assets.  My computer’s password, my email accounts (all 5 of them), my Amazon store credit, my wordpress login, etc.  If anything happened to me, virtually all of these assets would become literally inaccessible to my wife (or others), despite the fact that I had a will.  While they were legally protected, in all practical terms they’d become effectively worthless (including the 70+ domains I own through GoDaddy).  Legacy Locker was born.

When I returned home, I talked with my wife about the concept, and she completely recognized the need as well.  I went to my business partner Adam, he too thought it made sense.  I talked to a few other friends and close colleagues, and not a one said “nah, dumb idea, what are you thinking?”  So Adam and I raised some money, and hired a team to get things done.

The site is pretty simple to actually use and understand.  Users register, fill out a profile, and assign verifiers (people they trust to confirm their passing).  Next, they create assets and beneficiaries.  An asset is the online account information to a website, basically a username, password, and some notes.  The beneficiary is the person they’d want to receive the asset.  The last feature is called “Legacy Letters”, which are emails that get sent to family, friends, or colleagues with a “goodbye” note (in the future we’ll incorporate video as well).  For more on how it works, click here.

So this morning the site goes live.  The actual working service won’t come online for a few more weeks, as the final touches get put in place.  We’re looking forward to getting everything up and running, collecting feedback, and building a great service.  Our primary goal is to bring Legacy Locker to the attention of willmakers, attorneys, and estate planners who help service the 12.6 million households who have wills in place (and 900,000 new people every year), hence our slightly early launch.

I’ve been building consumer technology, from gadgets to websites, for the past 13 years.  While I’ve worked on some amazing products in my time, this is my first opportunity to use technology in a way to truly help people.  Thinking about loss is hard (which is why not enough people do backups and only 1/3 Americans have wills to protect their families).  Dealing with loss is even harder, and if we can help make that part of life a little easier for some people, I consider that a great accomplishment.

Thanks,
Jeremy

ps - sorry about the no blogging all month thing - I was in the hospital dealing with a nasty combination of appendicitis and Crohn’s disease, but I’m doing much better now thanks!

I agree with my friend Harry McCracken that CES 2009 was definitely smaller than past years. But I vehemently disagree with Dean Takahashi’s assesment that this is a “grim” stat.  In my opinion, the show had swelled well past the breaking point over the past few years.  This is what killed shows like Comdex and E3 (though for differing reasons of course).  Any industry dealing with excess bloat must find a way to trim its own fat or it will sooner or later get overtaken by it.  I think the smaller show, you know, with only 110,000 attendees (that was meant to be read aloud with a highly sarcastic tone and some eye-rolling) is a good thing, and I think there are a few other changes that should come with it.

In no particular order…

• Make a limit on booth sizes. The biggest booths (and I use the term lightly) are over 20,000 square feet (Samsung, Sony, Panasonic, etc).  From some fairly reliable sources I’ve been told these companies are spending over $15,000,000 each on the show (I was told over $20MM for one of them).  This is not money well spent.  While I’m all for capitalism, if the CEA takes proactive measures to help curb these kinds of spending, they will be less likely to have these budgets questioned in future years (think about it - would you rather see a downsized Panasonic, or no Panasonic???).  Also, it’d be hard to argue that anyone is really “losing” anything by being “constrained” to a 100′x100′ booth.
• Get rid of the Sands. As much as I’ve enjoyed demoing from the Sands over the past few years for various companies, it’s unquestionably the poorly cared for stepchild of the show.  The hours are worse, and so is the traffic.  There’s plenty of room in the LVCC for everyone, and if my predictions on a smaller ‘10 show are right, a fully packed show will “feel” a lot better than trying to do a little “combover” to hide the thinner regions (trust me on that one).
• Move the event back two weeks. I’m filing this one in the “I’m right, but it’ll never ever happen” category.  The current schedule is utterly painful for everyone involved in the show, and causes strains on personal lives for the tens of thousands of families who don’t get to enjoy December vacation times because they are prepping for this show.  Also, it always overlaps with other events, such as Macworld and the NFL playoffs.
• Embrace Showstoppers (and Pepcom too, I guess). The CEA treats these media events as if they are parasitic, but they are not, they are symbiotic.  As a guy who has successfully brought multiple no-name companies to the forefront of the show, I can tell you even the best contacts in the world still won’t guarantee decent press coverage with all the surrounding noise.  This year alone, the 4 clients my firm brought to Showstoppers generated literally dozens of extra articles written, all of which reflect CES in a good light.  It’s a clear win-win, and even if it’s not a direct profit generator, it should be welcomed.
• Improve the press list process. I wrote a guest post over at Technosailor trying to share my insights into “the CES pitch” from both perspectives. The process from both the pitch-or and pitch-ee is terrible.  I received hundreds of pitches, of which at least 1/2 were about products that I’d never write about, ever.  On the other hand we pitched about 400 writers, of which I’d assume no more than 1/10 (probably more like 1/20) would’ve found our clients uninteresting (which I can say with confidence based on the coverage they did receive at the show).  The problem was many of those 400 had already received so many other pitches, their “CES” filter was in high gear.  The press list needs more “rules” about how it is used, specifically to help the right stories find the right audiences.  I’d suggest that both exhibitors and press must pick specific categories to send/receive pitches, and the list be database-controlled by CEA.  If anyone is listening at all, get in touch and I can outline my thoughts in much more constructive detail.
• Clean up your database and registration system. My fellow Canadian Saleem Khan reminded me of this one.  Even though I pre-registered with my media credentials in August (or so), somehow my email address continued to receive biweekly reminders that I needed to sign up to attend CES 2009.  Further, once I had registered, I needed another account for the MyCES portal, and I think a third account for another subsection of the site.  While the first step was clean and flawless, the entire rest was messy.
• Prep the net. By 2010, I’d wager a strong majority of the “interesting” demonstrations will show fully connected devices.  We already saw the Yahoo TV widget system on numerous sets (my prediction: nice try, but no adoption - more some other time), and that’s just the beginning. The topic of my session during Jeff Pulver’s Social Media Jungle was “The Convergence of CE and Social Media” and it’s all about IP-enabled consumer electronics.  Internet connectivity in booths and at the show in general was spotty.  That was okay for CES ‘99, but was disappointing during ‘09.  Fix it (and the WiFi) for ‘10.
• Figure out the social media integration. There were a lot of “social media folks” hanging out at the show, or more to the point, kinda near the show.  I’m not exactly sure where the integration was, but it’s weird to me that the “famous social media video wine guy” was a sought-out “internelebrity” for the show.  No offense to Mr Vee (or any other of my colleagues from the social media scene), but considering the founders of Engadget and Gizmodo were there, not to mention all the rest of us whose actual jobs sit at the intersection of the gadget world and the social media world, it seemed a bit… forced.  This should be spearheaded by CEA, and built from the CE-side up, not from the social media side down.  As a result, the grand majority of the 110,000 attendees and millions who followed the event online had no awareness of things like The Ultimate Blogger Dinner, the miscellaneous TweetUps, and other endeavours which had potential, but just poorly integrated to the show.
• Fix up the Innovations Awards system. While the judges do a dandy job every year, there are way too many awards being handed out.  For awards to have merit, they need to be limited, it’s simple supply and demand.  Modernize and reduce the categories from 34 (yes, 34) to 20 or less.  Integrate some method of public voting and commenting (you could use uservoice.com to do it) to complement the judges (definitely don’t do away with the judges.  for reference, check out what happened to this year’s NHL All-Star voting!).  And less finalists per category - five would be plenty.
• More Monoliths.

Well, I’m sure I’ll come up with more 15 minutes from now, but I think that’s a healthy start.  If anyone from CEA would like more details, I’ll happily provide.  I’m looking forward to next year’s show, though hopefully I won’t get sick this time.  Yes, even after all my own advice, I somehow picked up the CES Flu this year, and it was a doozy.  I guess some things don’t stay in Vegas after all.

I’m roughly shoulder-deep in CES prep now, with 5 cool clients at the show (Boxee, Bug Labs, DeviceVM/Splashtop, TuneUp Media, and a new startup launching a gadget at the show), plus ShowStoppers, and also figuring out the booths I’ll go visit.  It’s a lot of work, and I’ve been at it for quite a few years now.  My friend Robert Scoble came up to San Francisco this past week, and we had a chance to sit down and chat about CES planning and strategy.

Robert refers to me as “The Three-Time CES Champion” (blush) as I’ve been fortunate enough to participate in three different products worthy of Best of CES distinction.  All three times were utterly exhilirating, all for different reasons.  At the end of the day, I completely enjoy the entire process of demoing products at CES, and can’t wait for CES 2009!

By the way, for those of you who manage or staff booths at the show, I put some suggestions up on the Stage Two blog.  Read the full post for details, but here’s the cheat sheet:

• Ignore the anti-hype.
• Wear comfy shoes.
• Bring supplies.
• Know your audience.
• Funnel your traffic.
• Emphasize the team spirit.
• Don’t mistreat competition.
• Ignore nobody.
• Expect to be on the record.
• Adapt your script.
• Engage in discussions.
• Give no schwag.
• Be neighborly.
• Take and give business cards.
• Be on time.

I ran about 50/50 with last year’s technology predictions.  Some were fairly safe, some a little more “out there”.  Here’s my thoughts for what’s on the docket for 2009…

Home Gadgets/Tech

• Microsoft opens the Xbox 360 platform even further, enables an “app store for the home” that spans well beyond games.
• Blu-ray sputters along, but not enough conclusive evidence (in other words, revenue) happens to either shut down the format altogether, nor to get consumers to adopt it.
• As the FCC-mandated digital TV transition approaches, the hype machine reaches full effect and very convincing pieces try to show the plight of the very few.  After it’s all over, virtually nobody complains loudly.
• One or both of Home Automation and/or Interactive TV returns to prominence in techie chatter, but neither make any additional inroads into actual homes.
• Pasting from 2008 predictions: Google launches “Android for Set-Top Boxes” but gains little traction in the foreseeable future.

Computers

• Netbook sales grow well, but not astoundingly so.  The majority of users ignore them due to a lack of actual value present in the device (especially those of us with big grubby fingers).
• One PC maker emerges from the trenches with a really well-designed laptop with great Vista drivers that actually can stand up against a Macbook enough to make people take notice.
• A Linux-based computer powered with a really great GUI and OpenOffice comes to market from an established brand.
• USB 3.0 launches, causing massive annoyance and confusion to consumers.  I still can’t believe they didn’t give it a different name than USB.  Terrible decision.

Mobile Gadgets/Tech

• More lousy wannabe touchscreen phones ship, none compete 1:1 with the iPhone.
• A really good GPS+phone combo device comes to market.
• The BlackBerry Storm is rapidly replaced with some better device from RIM.
• Mobile commerce replaces location-based services as the hot mobile trend.
• US cellular companies wage a price war, making several features (ahem, texting?) cheaper, along with better priced packages across the board.
• No truly impressive Android phones ship from anyone.

Events/News

• CES 2009 is notably smaller than 2008, yet the important stuff that goes on at the show is business as usual.  It’s all the fringe people who are absent, and the same who complain about the lack of cool new stuff at CES.  Which won’t be a surprise due to the rarity of cool new stuff actually shown at CES!
• Macworld is just the first of many shows to also announce downsizing, including Streaming Media, Web 2.0 Expo, etc.  2009 will be a bad year for the tech conference industry.
• Apple introduces only evolutionary products, nothing astounding or revolutionary. Let’s face it, sooner or later the well runs dry, and this is the time for the company to expand its market.  Yes, we’ll get a new phone, laptop, and ipod, but I doubt we see anything as profound as in the past 2 years.
• A largish black monolith with dimensions 1 by 4 by 9 is discovered.

Web/Online

• Facebook reaches a user base of 200 hundred million users.  It’s growth ratethen  slows and the alarm bells sound loudly throughout the media, regardless of actual success metrics.
• Twitter finally announces its business model, which underwhelms everyone.  Not that it won’t be a good model, just that it will have been (wow is that passive voice or what?) built up with far more hype than can possibly be delivered.
• Many “web 2.0″ companies face major shrinkage as the funds simply don’t come back to them again.  Companies with huge traffic bases or, more importantly, solid revenue models will be fine, but the rest start fading away (and they take their weird names with them)
• Several “prominent” blogs/bloggers retire due to a lack of revenue, exhaustion, lack of interesting new content to write about, etc.
• Web 3.0 does not arrive.

That’s all I can really muster up for 2009, guess I’m having clairvoyance block.  Regardless, I’m pretty excited for the year.  Have the new house coming.  A little family expansion planned for Q1.  Oh, and I’ll be involved with some other cool new startups.  But I guess that’s getting to be par for the course, eh?  :)  I sincerely can’t wait to tell y’all about one of them, it’s my own little brainchild in fact.  All in due time, though, all in due time.

I’m about the least unopinionated guy I know.  362 days ago, I made a whole bunch of predictions.  Let’s see how I scored…

TV Technology

• Every major cable company will increase it’s rates by more than 3%. Nobody will complain, and our government will (again) fail to protect us from them.  — Well, I don’t really have the time to review all the packages from all the service providers, but I know my rates went up.  I’ll score this a Yes.
• A resolution above 1080p starts appearing in demos and labs, I’d predict a bump up into the 4000 vertical lines space.  — Yup.
• Bluray and HD-DVD continue to duke it out while consumers continue to not care.  — Well, HD failed, and Blu-ray is still in the doldrums.  But, since my prediction was they’d be fighting through the year, I guess this is a No.
• One of Hulu, Joost, etc get integrated into the Xbox 360 and/or PS3. — Netflix on Xbox for the Yes.
• Google launches “Android for Set-Top Boxes” but gains little traction in the foreseeable future. — Nope, didn’t happen (though I still believe they are working on it).
• Anyone who is not a telephone company that tries to launch an IP-streaming set top device has a very rough year. — Vudu, Sezmi, etc.  Yes.
• Despite near-constant predictions of their demise, TiVo makes it through another year, possibly getting acquired (by DirecTV, Comcast, Netflix, Blockbuster, or someone out of the blue like Amazon or eBay). — Yes.

Portable Devices That Are Not Cell Phones

• Zune 3.0 launches. It’s very very good. Further, iPod’s market share dips, although they still have an increase in overall unit sales (in other words: the pie gets bigger faster than their sales do). That said, a new iPod is even more betterer than all previous versions, making everyone who recently bought a prior generation a wee bit annoyed, but gosh that Steve Jobs is so charming they just don’t care. After all, that’s technology! — No, pretty much completely wrong (though there is a rumor for a new Zune at CES 09)
• At least two major camera vendors introduce integrated wifi cameras, but no more than one uses an open service, the rest have some proprietary, closed, annoying-to-use system. Ideally one of them buys Eye-fi. — Correctamundo (but still waiting on the Eye-Fi acquisition)
• Digital picture frames continue to grow in market share, but still don’t “tip” into the mainstream. — Anecdotally I’d say I’m right (duh), but I can’t find any stats either way.  That said, there were enough units sold to get some malignant pusbag to put a virus on one. I’ll leave this one unresolved for now.
• More companies introduce e-book readers despite general malaise in the category. Kindle II is launched with mild improvements. — Wrong, wrong, wrong.  Even if I don’t “get it”, apparently Oprah does, so it looks like the category’s doing fine.  Probably one of the biggest surprises to me this year…

Enterprise Services

• I have no clue, I don’t follow the space. Hello, this is a consumer tech blog!  — This statement certainly wasn’t enough to prevent clueless PR flacks from pitching me on their enterprise technology products.

Computers

• Apple’s new laptops will include an ultramobile, a tablet, and a “desktop replacement” OR a “gaming model” (they may combine the first two). Enhancements will include a card reader, 3G access as a built-in option, and new gestures. Market share continues to climb.  — Other than the market share comment, I’m quite wrong again.  I should’ve just said “one solid piece of aluminium” and left it at that.
• Microsoft continues to spin about how amazing Vista is. Michael Gartenberg’s observations are probably the most poignant as to why it isn’t. — Right, and with a huge budget to boot.
• Asus or Dell acquires or merges with one of HP, Acer, Toshiba, or other “meh” PC maker.  — Wrong.
• Sony continues to make subpar Vaio laptops. And for the last time (I think) in 2007: don’t buy the Sony Vaio VGN-SZ4xx series laptops, they are just plain terrible. I’ve now had the chance to voice my discontent directly to the Vaio PR team (at Ruder Finn) who have yet to write me back on the topic. — Completely right.  If I’ve had the opportunity to cost them some sales, I feel like I’ve accomplished something.  And a note to that PR team - how about dropping me a note one day?  Since you pitch yourselfes as being good at this “social media” thing, maybe you’d like to show your prowess?
• Nobody makes my awesome dual-screen laptop concept, thus leaving me the opportunity to make zillions one day.  — I have the pleasure to say that I’m wrong, and Lenovo owes me zillions.

Social Networking

• Facebook continues to get backlash from the media and tech community, meanwhile its user base continues to skyrocket. Further, they hire another 1000 people, yet only make modest improvements to the site itself. I’d add a 33% chance that they “pull a Netscape” and go after the desktop or the browser or some other place they really don’t belong.  — Re backlash: right; Re growth: right; Re staffing: close; Re improvements: right; Re target a weird space: right (Beacon).  Cmon, I get extra props here!
• Randomly pick some names from the huge list of other social networking sites and some of them merge. — AOL bought Bebo, but that was about it for the year.
• Adults who didn’t grow up with social networking services experience burnout of being bitten by zombies after a few months, and many stop checking in four times per day. Those who went to school during the Facebook era continue to complain about all the old fogies (like me) polluting their sacred resting ground. They also continue to put radically inappropriate pictures of themselves online, blissfully unaware of the interviewing process. — Right on all counts.

Mobile Tech

• A few Android-powered phones ship, but not as many as the tech community would like to see. Again showing why the Razr can utterly dominate the market despite a closed architecture and terrible user interface. — I guess I should’ve said “One or more” instead of “a few”, but I’m gonna go with a yes here.
• Apple launches the iPhone 3G, the iPhone nano, and the iPhonePro. Ok, I’m not 100% sure on the third, but I am betting on the first two. Also, one of these new phones comes unlocked OR on a carrier other than AT&T.  — Mixed, so for the count I’ll have to say wrong.
• Some major lawsuit occurs between a carrier and either a cable company or a broadcaster, all about mobile video rights. All parties involved appear as nothing but greedy to outsiders. — Wrong (it’s still brewing, trust me)
• Something new comes out in the phone space that’s more astounding than the iPhone. It’s possibly: uber-small, has a radically better battery life, does something funky like synchs with the Wii, or works with all US carriers.  — Wrong, instead a bunch of lousy, boring, poorly built touchphone replicas come to market.  Fail.

Gaming

• With lots of stealth, a new console comes to market. It might only be a moderate shift from a prior model, or possibly be a whole new entrant. — Nope.
• Rock Band 2 and 3, and Guitar Heros 4, 5, 6, and “Eddie Van Halen” editions come out, however nobody licenses the Harmonix engine to make “Jazz Trio”. — N/A, was just sarcasm.
• Someone comes up with a really impressively new concept for the Wii. Good odds, however, that they wrap it inside a crappy game. — Don’t know, didn’t pay enough attention to the Wii.  Anyone?
• More really amazing HD gaming occurs, continuing to drive HD adoption faster than the meager channels the cable companies try to placate us with, despite the fact that they raise prices again. Did I already say that? — Yup.

Web Services/Misc

• A wide swath of “Web 2.0″ companies will go dark, primarily out of an inability to either figure out a business model for their product, or an inability to successfully market their service outside of the Bay Area.  They will quickly be forgotten and replaced by new ones with even goofier sounding names like Froobooloo.com. — I guess this has to be a “not quite yet”, but it’s-a-coming…
• No major Wimax deployments occur.  — Right-o.
• The digital transition date looms, starts creating a lot of media hype a la Year2000 mania. — Very right.
• RFID continues to be a fun topic for the media, but all that happens is Walmart continues to make small vendors spend loads of money for the privelege of selling there. — Goes under the not enough information to make a call category.
• Bloggers fret about not being recognized as “press”, yet continue to spend too much time/energy gossiping about other bloggers, an activity the general public remains disinterested in and doesn’t give extra respect/credibility for.  This circular logic is baffling, I know. — Right.
• We lose even more rights to big media, because few Americans are willing to take even the tiniest steps to do anything about it.  PLEASE PROVE ME WRONG (start here)! — Right.
• I still don’t Twitter.  — 1005 updates at the time of writing. Complete and utter fail. I’m so lame.

The verdict… 16 correct predictions, 13 incorrect ones, and 3 with insufficient information.  Not too shabby, but I’ll try to do a little better next year!