LIVEdigitally

Last summer I wrote a blog post in which I claimed that tablets, for lack of a better word, suck.  Yet I actually woke up early today to confirm that I’d be able to get an iPad the day it came out. I wanted to take a moment to explain why I am actually excited about the iPad (image source = Scobleizer + my wannabe Photoshop skills).

First, my anti-tablet arguments, and how they do/don’t apply:

• Tablets suck at handwriting recognition.
  Still true, hence Apple implementing an on-screen keyboard and building a physical keyboard to go along with it. I don’t consider this a particularly great solution, I’d actually prefer a “Palm Graffiti-like” option (yeah, not elegant, but once you knew it, you were fast).
• Tablets suck to carry around.
  Still true, actually one of my biggest concerns about my personal use of the iPad.
• Tablets make you tired.
  From using my Droid Eris I’ve already noticed slightly different types of strains on the muscles in my forearms, not sure if its from the typing or the swiping (or the general frustrations with Android).  Curious to see how this plays out with the iPad.
• Tablets can’t share nicely with others.
  In typical Apple fashion, rather than try to make all Office apps work they’ve created a new ecosystem for productivity apps.  I feel this is an okay approach, but still not what I want.  I am concerned that I’m going to want to sketch notes and markup docs and have no way to effectively do it – but I can’t really tell if this’ll work or not yet.
• Tablets suck at hiding smudges.
  Any carrying case worth buying will have a little pouch to keep glass cleaner.  It’s going to be smudgeriffic for sure.
• Tablets are bad Web browsers.
  I think this is one area I’ll have to eat my words a bit – mobile browsing is better than it used to be, and it really seems that Apple has focused specifically on the Web experience.
• Tablets are priced poorly.
  Well, it’s not cheap, but it’s not crazy either.  For an early adopter product, I’d say its priced appropriately, though will need to eventually come down.  Unless it’s actually a viable personal laptop replacement (more below), in which case the price point is awesome.
• Tablets suck at everything else.
  Still true – unless the entire ecosystem is built off a custom app platform and instead of trying to run traditional computing applications (ahem, Windows), it’s running all new stuff… But it still might suck.

So what happened here? Am I just a rampant hypocrite? Have I been drinking too much Apple Kool-Aid?  Do I just want to be the first kid on the block with some shiny new object (unlikely)? Or is it something different?

For the “haters” (basically all the crazy tablet fanatics who got offended that I don’t love their products as much as they do and am apparently not supposed to state said opinion), this will sound bizarre, but in a nutshell I don’t really consider the iPad a tablet.  Yes, it’s a slate form factor. Yes, it has a touch screen. Yes, there are a ton of similarities to the tablet category. But it’s not a tablet.

I consider the iPad much closer to a “big iPod Touch” than any other category of product.  While it has some aspects of productivity tools, the reality is the product is optimized for other types of usage.  Let’s face it, that virtual keyboard is probably going to get annoying pretty fast.  Further, with no USB there’s very few options for extensibility.  Which means you can’t think of it like a “computer”, since it’s actually much less versatile than one.  But as a product, it’s just as versatile as it needs to be.

From one perspective I guess I do drink a bit of the Kool-Aid, as I do believe the company has effectively built the “not a phone, not a laptop” product.  I also think they’ve built something with tons of versatility and practical use.  As we continue to march down the post-computing era of gadgets, I think the iPad will start transforming a lot of peoples’ mindsets on what exactly can be done with innovative technology.

And as I said in the original tablets suck post, “But if you do figure it out, I’m buying!”

In proper form,I shall now review my own predictions of the iPad from my first two posts on the subject (parts 1 and 2).  Let’s start with…

What I got wrong:

Productivity Apps
I said: “Unlike the Microsoft approach to “ecosystem” – where everything other than the Xbox is able to view and edit Excel spreadsheets – my hunch is the iPad is all about lifestyle, the Internet, and entertainment.  I’d guess there’s a native version of Safari, some kind of simple email and calendaring, and that’s about it.”

In reality: native new version of iWork!

Reaction: I’m pretty surprised by this move. I certainly see the case for casual work-like content creation (make a simple budget, add some numbers, etc), but figured this would be much more of an afterthought. Further, without an input mechanism (camera – more below) beyond the touchscreen, I don’t quite feel the product “fits” as a content creator.

Augmented Reality/Content Creation
I said: “I’d predict there are several native applications and services that provide very cool augmented reality features.  I’m firmly in the camp of one or more cameras on the iPad, and I think Apple will include one or more fun exploits of the concept from the get-go.”

In reality: zero cameras.

Reaction: This is unquestionably the most questionable aspect of the iPad (like how I did that?). There’s one in the Nano, but not here? Just doesn’t make sense to me, nor most of the people I spoke with during and post the event.  My colleague Jim Schaff thinks this is effectively a beancounter’s decision – the numbers were run that showed adding a camera could/would cannibalize from either MacBook or iPhone sales, and thus the camera was dropped.  Other folks I’ve spoken with theorize it’ll show up in a rapid revision of the product (something I don’t agree with, as they had no specific reason to rush the iPad to market, and could easily have waited until it was working).  My other theory here is that it’s not a hardware issue, but a product/software complexity issue, and the overall impact of adding a camera would have created too significant a product development challenge in the short term.  Gotta crawl before ya run.

Hardware ins/outs
I said: “It’ll have the iPod connector, USB, DisplayPort and an SD card slot.  A webcam is highly probably, and I wouldn’t be surprised with an IR interface as well.”

In reality: custom dock connector, USB, no other ports.

Reaction: I’m disappointed at the lack of SD card reader, especially in context of the photo frame use-case.

What I got right:

The name
I said: “iPad”. 

Heavy software emphasis
I said: “Everything that ships on the iPad will be designed completely to work in a touch fashion, or it won’t be included period.  I’m still torn between whether it’ll be a version of OS X or a version of the iPhone OS, but either way, the device will ship with oodles of applicable software, custom-built to be great in gesture, touch, multi-touch, or even by looking at it the right way.”

Closed app infrastructure
I said: “I expect the iPad will sit somewhere between the iPhone, with individually manually approved apps, and the OS X platform.  Based on the reports today that some apps are supposedly already being run on the iPad (of course these reports prove absolutely nothing, as it could either be an updated iPhone with a new OS, or simply another “labs” product running around campus.  but where would modern tech blogging be without unsubstantiated rumor circulation and amplification?) , my leaning is a differentiated version of the iPhone OS, with more leniency in app approval, but still not open. Many will complain, many will profit, and many will love it.”

Single carrier support
I said: “And since the former isn’t very Apple-y, it’s much more likely there’s only one carrier involved” and “It’ll have 3G services built-in.  I’d hope for Verizon, but that limits Apple to its international possibilities.  And there’s no way they’d waste the money on two different 3G chips.”

Note that I’m surprised, but not shocked, that it’s still just AT&T.

Media Slate as product definition
I said: “So picture a device that’s sleek and sexy, can play back movies, TV shows (including live TV), Internet radio (lala), show pictures/slideshows, play simple games (app store), and be otherwise completely entertaining.  It connects from anywhere, has enough internal storage to last a nationwide flight, and is all about fun.  Further, it comes with numerous context access options, including free services, a la carte purchasing/rentals, and subscription options.  It probably also has a Webcam and native iChat support. I’m fairly bullish on this concept, as it seems to fit in with the Apple iLifestyle very well, and makes for a useful product.”

Parting thoughts:

I’m actually going to write another blog post with my specific thoughts on the iPad (and I’m the only guy doing that!).  My quickest reactions are that I’m impressed with the price point, but shocked about the lack of camera.  I think they *will* sell millions of units, and it’ll be more compelling to a more mainstream audience than many others think, though I still find flaws in the overall offering.  In reality, this device is actually a very good alternate “home computer” for the average person who only needs web surfing, email, media playback, and entertainment. It’s certainly more compelling than a Netbook.

For some final fun, here’s the blog post I wrote predicting roughly this device. Of course that was back in July 2007.

Per yesterday’s post on Twitter needing better demos, here’s a very (IMHO) useful way to follow live coverage, from multiple perspectives, using Twitter. I’ve created a “list” of people who are either live at the event, or following it closely. These people are more likely to tweet only about the Apple event during it. I’ve now taken the list, and embedded it here in the blog as a widget, to show the content. This means you, if the you in question is not a Twitterer, are now actually using the service. Enjoy.

As an aside, one of the “gotchas” about lists will be watching what happens to this same group of people’s content tomorrow. While there was a moment in time where they are united in function and content, within minutes it will become disparate conversations having virtually nothing to do with each other. Which is, unfortunately, another problem with trying to find common ground in Twitter. If you’d like to experiment more with lists, you can visit Listorious, a web site devoted to nothing but Twitter lists…

Steve Jobs was quoted as saying “This will be the most important thing I’ve ever done”.  Now we know why!

ps – yeah, I am not good at Photoshop.  I don’t care, was just trying to have some fun.

pps – in case someone somehow interprets this as me bashing Steve, I am not in any way doing so.

ppps – in case someone thinks I’m “linkbaiting” – get real.

pppps – in case someone thinks some other negative thing here, COME ON! lighten up people!!!

The other day I surmised on what the iPad (still calling it that – it’s the shortest option) might be, as a device.  With only three days left to go prior to launch, I still find myself pondering the “how do they build something at the right price point that’s useful beyond the context of novelty and/or on the commode?” question. While many are going gaga over pretty much anything that could come out, I in my stubborn fashion still just can’t conceptualize what we are about to see.  Of course I’m effectively ready to pre-order it, but I still can’t piece it all together in my head.  So as the follow-up to what might the product be, I thought I’d amble on about what I don’t think we’ll see…

Hardware without software
One of my general rants about Tablet PCs is the lack of compelling software.  Sure Microsoft splashed some “touch features” across the OS, but for the most part it’s a trainwreck.  Apple won’t do this. Everything that ships on the iPad will be designed completely to work in a touch fashion, or it won’t be included period.  I’m still torn between whether it’ll be a version of OS X or a version of the iPhone OS, but either way, the device will ship with oodles of applicable software, custom-built to be great in gesture, touch, multi-touch, or even by looking at it the right way.

Niche or otherwise narrow market scoped
I stated in my last post that a possible product category is just a heads-on Kindle killer.  I’d characterize this as a small opportunity – yes, it’s been great for Amazon, but the market for “better than Kindle e-readers” is small. The only small product Apple still ships is the Apple TV, which they’ve characterized as a hobby product (and rightfully so) from day one.  Granted they haven’t actually said anything about the iPad yet, but their PR machine is too smart to let this much buzz build up and fall that short.  Then again, if this thing doesn’t come with an espresso maker and difribulator, some people are going to be disappointed.

An open platform

Focused on productivity
Unlike the Microsoft approach to “ecosystem” – where everything other than the Xbox is able to view and edit Excel spreadsheets – my hunch is the iPad is all about lifestyle, the Internet, and entertainment.  I’d guess there’s a native version of Safari, some kind of simple email and calendaring, and that’s about it.  I think Apple doesn’t have any interest in trying to build buzz or sales into the corporate world, and will instead stay close to their home turf with consumer appeal.  I’d go so far as to say it’ll be fun to use, and the new user experience will center entirely around delivering entertaining content.

Support every mobile carrier
Okay, this is one of those “I think I’m right, but what if they really figured it out???” things (Google didn’t really, and they’ve got some smarty folks too).  Supporting all the US carriers is cost prohibitively “impossible” – you’d need a minimum of 2 different antennas/chips and the relationships in place.  Doing this adds to cost, which is transferred somewhere (consumers), and for the most part neither manufacturers nor consumers like to have “wasteful” componentry.  Which means it’s much more likely there’s either multiple SKUs, or only one carrier.  And since the former isn’t very Apple-y, it’s much more likely there’s only one carrier involved – or none at all (which makes some sense, if this were 1997).  Further, this gets messy when we consider Verizon, the best network in the US, as their CDMA platform is unused in Europe, a place where Apple sells a lot of stuff.

I could probably add a few more pages of the what I don’t think will happen variety, but they start getting less interesting in my own opinion (5 colors of iPads! – not).  I did have one more “I’ll bet they do” item, which is…

Embrace Augmented Reality Even More
Lots of hot trends in the technosphere, from Twitter to FourSquare, from App Stores to Cloud Computing.  But Augmented Reality is actually an interesting one, has more usefulness than others, and is right up Apple’s alley.  I’d predict there are several native applications and services that provide very cool augmented reality features.  I’m firmly in the camp of one or more cameras on the iPad, and I think Apple will include one or more fun exploits of the concept from the get-go.  I don’t know if it’ll be as awe-inspiring as PlayGunman, our amazing lasertag on iPhone game, but hopefully it’ll be close (disclosure – I’m extremely involved in it. also, I’m joking around – if Apple can’t make our game look like Adventure on the 2600, I’d be stunned. and it’s not like our guys are slackers, but it’s freaking Apple).  Apple will definitely do some kind of boundary-pushing move with this device, and I’d hunch that augmented reality is one of the areas they could truly make us think a little differently.

If you follow gadgets or new tech and you are not aware that Apple is introducing “something” next Wednesday, you are either (1) my wife or mother or (2) awaking from a long long sleep. Now along with virtually anything Apple does, or contemplates doing, or doesn’t contemplate doing but others contemplate on their behalf, the rumor mill on this “iPad” is just out of control.  Not a day has gone by this week, and probably the week prior, where numerous stories on TechMeme centered on the speculated device.  My turn.

I’ve tried to think about this entirely with the following perspective:

1. Tablets, as we think of them today, suck (unless you are in a very specific niche, or perhaps a crazed fanboy).
2. Steve Jobs does not like to ship suck-y products.
3. Apple does not focus on niche markets.
4. Some of the rumors we’ve seen are likely correct (a million monkeys on a million keyboards…).
5. Apple will still likely do one or more things nobody’s even hazarded a guess at.

So with that in mind, what is Apple up to?

Some more assumptions:

• It’ll have 3G services built-in.  I’d hope for Verizon, but that limits Apple to its international possibilities.  And there’s no way they’d waste the money on two different 3G chips.
• It’ll have a “built-for iPad” program at launch.  Still nothing from Droid on this front, but you can bet that Griffin, Case Logic, Kensington, and all the other players will have cases and other accessories coming to market extremely soon.
• It’ll have the iPod connector, USB, DisplayPort and an SD card slot.  A webcam is highly probably, and I wouldn’t be surprised with an IR interface as well.
• It might have some clever method of charging (magnetic induction).

Here are some thoughts on the product itself, in no particular order:

• Sub $300 e-reader + tablet: How about if Apple directly takes on the Kindle, and throws in a great version of Safari, and a Verizon 3G connection?  They sell it at cost, give it a beautiful touch-screen, make it all iPhone-y, but keep it as a simple device.  At this price point it does compete with the iPod Touch, technically, but not in reality, as they are such vastly different products.  We know from the Kindle’s success that there’s a market for the category, and we know that the Nooks and Sonys of the world won’t stand a chance versus Apple and Amazon as the category leaders.  In the “what seems kinda possible and stands a chance at selling in the millions” way of thinking, this is definitely a contender.  Not as sexy as some other options, but possible.
• Detachable MacBook screen: I’ve come back to this one a few times, as it seems to fit “the world we know” fairly well. What if instead of it being a whole new device, Apple upgrades all MacBooks to have touchscreens that are detachable.  In other words, the keyboard part of the laptop comes off.  It would require some fairly sophisticated engineering to pull off, as the bulk of the computer itself is in the keyboard area, but if anyone’s going to do it.  I think it’s a bit farfetched, but only because I can’t conjure up the physical realities that would be required for it to work.
• Mac “Accessory”: Had an interesting chat about this concept the other day – basically it’s the idea that the tablet is a remote desktop viewing device that lets a user log in to another Mac elsewhere on the Internet.  It would probably have an internal Web browser as well, and some simple other features, but effectively it’s a “dumb terminal” for a more powerful computer.  And in a coup de grace Applesque way to do things, it would probably let you log into a Windows 7 computer as well (assuming you got the right drivers installed, of course).  I don’t think this is a strong possibility, as it doesn’t seem mass-market enough, but it would become a really interesting competitor to a netbook in regards to being a “disposable computer”.
• Media Slate: So picture a device that’s sleek and sexy, can play back movies, TV shows (including live TV), Internet radio (lala), show pictures/slideshows, play simple games (app store), and be otherwise completely entertaining.  It connects from anywhere, has enough internal storage to last a nationwide flight, and is all about fun.  Further, it comes with numerous context access options, including free services, a la carte purchasing/rentals, and subscription options.  It probably also has a Webcam and native iChat support. I’m fairly bullish on this concept, as it seems to fit in with the Apple iLifestyle very well, and makes for a useful product.

Those are all good, and nice safe bets.  I don’t think I’ve hazarded guesses that others haven’t.  But now I’ll (try to) get more interesting.

• What if the entire device were touch-sensitive? Front AND back.  Fully gesture enabled, not just multi-touch but multi-hand.  Remember, one of the things that makes tablets suck is figuring out how to hold it right – so let’s assume they “magic mouse” the whole thing, and made it smart enough to figure out the difference between the “holding hand” and the rest of it.
• What if it’s a flexible display instead? Okay, this is probably stuck in the in my dreams category, but it would be crazy impressive if they skip the whole concept of a tablet and move the industry up a notch with a flex display.
• What if there’s a built-in pico projector? Going on the “media slate” theory, but kicking into gear the concept of “fun for the whole family”.  Also doubles-up as a productivity device for showing presentations.

And lastly…

What if there’s no tablet?

Seriously, it’s a real possibility.  What if instead of showing us a tablet, they show a 4G iPhone and impressive updates to other devices (or not)?  What if they announce media streaming services instead?  We all know Apple plays their own game, and if they haven’t figured out how to make this thing magical, I don’t think they’d want to ship it.  It would be a bit of an odd strategy, as there seem to be a few too many pseudo-confirmed rumors, but then again, Apple doesn’t deal with terrorists rumors.  It’s a possibility…

What would the Consumer Electronics Show be if it didn’t have it’s fair share of weird, wacky, zany, and otherwise silly technology proudly on display?  It’s easy enough to catch the 3D displays, the ultra-slim TVs, and other hot new stuff. But seeking out the “take a picture of yourself and print a custom press-on nail kiosk” take a lot more effort.  Here were some of my favorite fun things at the show:

DIY Personalized Press-On Nails
Thanks to the digital camera and modern inkjet technology, the trappings of instant print-your-own-anything are here to wonder and delight. Custom shirts, hats, mugs, skateboards and stickers have been all the rage of late. But that era is now past, thanks to the make your own press-on nail system. It’s funny, but in reality, someone’s going to make a killing setting these things up in malls across the country.

The Changhong Panda
Not sure why the panda was there, what the company was doing, or really anything other than there was in fact a six foot tall panda. And his new friend Adam.

The Sony Bloggie
This camera hits home with the “we’re gonna try to appeal to them bloggerators” marketing pitch. Yup, from the company that basically invented portable music, numerous industry standard playback formats, the plasma display, and more. Next year they’ll ship the twittie, a micro-camera.

The “real” headphone
If you think your ears are the only part of your body that can hear noise, well, ok actually you are correct in that regards. However, if you think hearing noise is just about the external part of your ear, well that’s where you’re wrong. Turns out your entire head can absorb sound, it’s a concept called bone conduction, and it’s actually been around for a while. But nobody’s quite mastered the art of the demo and pitch like these guys:

Programmable Color Keyboards
Let’s face it, keyboards are boring. Every other accessory, from mice to USB drives, come in hundreds of flavors and varieties. But thankfully the wait is over, you too can have a customized keyboard. American Flag pattern? Got it. Rainbow? Check. Jersey Shore theme? Sigh, it’s inevitable.

The 4th-gen iPhone?
Could this be it?

(no – it’s just a 3/4 size knock-off by some random Asian manufacturer. it might turn on, probably can make a phone call or two, but there’s definitely no app store)

Automatic Bottle Opener
Just think of all the wine bottles you open over the year. If you are American, it’s a grand total of about 6 bottles per year (as opposed to your French cousin, who is closer to 40). Assuming you exert about 12 calories per bottle opened, just think of all the muscle energy you’d save if only you had a gadget to perform this laborious recurring chore for you. Ta da:

Space Station Styled iMac Workstation
In all fairness this isn’t really as goofy as anything else on the list, in the right kind of office this could actually look pretty interesting. Not *my* office, but…

The Nickelodeon Oxygen Bar, Massage Center, and Nap Station
Why wouldn’t Nickelodeon, a popular children’s TV network be at the Consumer Electronics Show? And why wouldn’t there be an Oxygen Bar in the middle of a booth? And why wouldn’t there be a place for people to just chill and, well, fall asleep? And while we’re at it, why wouldn’t we think of the same network that brings us shows with insanely loud music and bright colors to “inspire” our children as the same place to deliver us such a restful location? Convergence.

SpeakerShoes
This is clearly the first generation of products from CONTROL, as a prototype for next year’s edition which’ll have the phone inside. I think I can summarize by saying “missed it by that much”.

Forget 3DTV, CES was all about E-Cigarettes
I am not exaggerating nor incorrect when I state there were more demonstrations of “e-cigarette” products than there were 3DTV products. Why? Because every third or fourth Chinese, Korean, Taiwanese, and other manufacturing representatives were showcasing them in their booths. As I am not a smoker, I don’t get the appeal of regular cigarettes, but I am willing to wager these don’t quite replicate the experience.

Automatic Head Massager
Unfortunately there were no demonstration units to try out. I am a big fan of all massage-related technologies (and if someone from Panasonic wants to send me that amazing $6000 massage chair, I will happily accept it as a permanent featured addition to the man-cave). Not sure how the head massage feels, but I think you can slip it an extra $20 for a happy ending.

And for the perfect combo…

That’s it for my CES wrap-ups, coming in the next few days will be some thoughts and analysis on the trends and themes for gadgets in 2010.  If you aren’t satiated yet, here’s Engadget’s “CrapGadget” post, oddballs from CNET, and a huge list of lists of lists of CES stuff from Robert Scoble. Thanks for reading!

To be clear up front, this is neither a “Best of” nor a “What’s Hot” type of list.  It’s literally the stuff I saw.  Further, I purposefully avoided the most popular stuff, which you can read more about here, here and here (though they somehow missed the whole 3DTV meme, which was fairly unmissable).  I unfortunately only have a few of the videos I made, as the quality was so poor, but I did get a handful of only semi-grainy Droid-cam pix.  So here are some of the things I saw, in chronological order:

Skullcandy
Saw new headphones designed by DJs for DJs.  New models at CES have the “Aviator” influence. I could so see Tom Cruise sporting these (pre-jumping the couch crazy Cruise that is):

Shure
My long-time favorite in-ear headphones have new updates shown at CES, coming later this year. Quick interview with them:

Optoma
I think a lot of the pico projector as concept.  Optoma now has 4 different models for you to consider:

Chat with Roku’s Brian Jaquet
Met up with my old Sling Media officemate, had a fun chat about convergence, new media vs TV, 3Dtv, etc.

3DTV & 3D Gaming
If you managed to get through any CES coverage without hearing about 3DTV, well… I just don’t think it was possible. Virtually every company I saw displaying any kind of TV was also showing some type of 3D demo. Personally, I’m highly skeptical of 3D for TV, but also very bullish for 3D gaming.  More to come on the topic in the next few days.

Funky Cases
The era of the black laptop briefcase is definitely at an end. I saw some very cool laptop cases, sleeves, backpacks, and more from a variety of companies. Here’s a shot of a laptop sleeve from Built that I really liked:

Additionally, there were just as many (maybe even more) cool iPhone accessories and cases (virtually none for Droid – more later). Here is Griffin’s custom iPhone case designed by Threadless (three great things that go together).

I wasn’t able to find ANY Droid or Droid Eris accessories! I will blog about this shortly, but in a nutshell, there’s simply no “made for Droid” program. Not good. But I did find a nice screen protector from BodyGuardZ:

Really, really, really, really thin TVs
There was a 7mm thick TV set from LG at CES this year (pictured below). It was just a prototype, but clearly an indicator of what we’ll see next year. A slightly under-hyped bit of CES 2010 was the prevalence of LED TVs, and while purists will complain on their picture quality, they were unquestionably sexy-thin.

And if you didn’t believe me on my word alone, Peerless (one of the major players in flat panel mounts, and the brand I personally purchased) launched wall mounts for thin TVs:

Cinq laptop monitor
I’ll blog more about these guys later this week (and I have a video interview to boot), but a company I’m on the advisory board of launched this week (disclosure: I’m on their advisory board). The product is called Cinq, it’s a portable lightweight laptop monitor. If you recall my blog posts on a dual-display laptop, this is probably the closest thing to it that’s actually coming to market.

Cool booths
While they are ostentatious in virtually every way, there were some very cool booths at CES. And since the show is held in Vegas, which is ostentatious in virtually every way, I guess it’s hard to argue against it. Ideally it would be less brightly lit and more eco-friendly (considering there is a “sustainability” pavilion at the show – more below), but I don’t think that’s coming anytime soon. My favorite booth, in terms of design/presentation, was Samsung’s “kaleidoriffic” display:

E-readers/E-books
Another category I’m really not bullish about is e-readers. I think there’s a market for the Kindle, the possibility of an Apple device, and that’s about it – and I’m being generous. This is still a niche segment for those with a lot of disposable income, and I don’t see the mainstream (aka paperback) book-buying market investing heavily in a gadget that brings them more expensive (though cheaper than hardcover) anytime soon (especially not pre-rebound economy). However, should someone figure it by devising a new model for e-book purchasing, like say, subscription-based, I think there’s a shot. One of the readers that got people pretty excited this year comes from Plastic Logic:

Green(ish) Stuff
This is a tricky one. I’ve personally woven more sustainability into my day-to-day life, and still look for ways to improve. It’s clearly “buzzy” to be green, despite the tremendous amount of greenwashing going on. So when you’re in Vegas (a city in the middle of a desert) at CES (with huge displays on all the time) and there’s a sustainability movement, is it ironic or noble? Hard to tell. But I do applaud the numerous LED technologies, batteries, recycling, and other effort to help improve the overall consumer electronics industry. My highlight was probably a chat with the folks from Greenpeace, who also issued this year’s “Guide to Greener Electronics“:

More to come…
I have a lot more to say about CES 2010, the hot (and not), the trends, my predictions, etc.   Will try to get one post up per day all week with the thoughts and more.

En route to Vegas, I got myself completely ready for “liveblogging” CES 2010.  My plan was to walk the show floor, find interesting stuff, and either make a quick video or take a picture and blog.  In order to achieve this goal, I had the following technologies prepped:

• My Droid Eris.  I was fairly confident that the Verizon network would hold up well during the show, giving me 3G bandwidth when and where I’d need it.  Further, it has a 5MP camera – good enough for CES picture taking. Usefulness: 9/10.
• Ardica jacket w/Moshi Power Pack. Stage Two is doing some consulting work with Ardica, so they gave me a jacket to use during the show in order to keep my Eris charged (since the battery while doing 3G connectivity drains ridiculously fast). Usefulness: 10/10. And as a bonus it kept me warm outside!
• Flip minoHD. As my backup to my Droid, I had a Flip ready to make all sorts of interesting videos, just in case. Usefulness:2/10. I only made one video with the Flip, but it did work when I needed it.
• WpToGo (Android App). Gave me near-perfect mobile access to the WordPress blog. Usefulness: 8/10
• Ustream Broadcaster (Android App). Gave me live videostreaming directly from the phone. Usefuless: 9/10
• TwiDroid (Android App). Gave me access to Tweet and monitor Tweets. Usefulness: 9/10

Right now you’re probably thinking “well golly jee, Jeremy, it sure sounds like you were set up as the ultimate mobile blogger. What ever could have gone wrong?”

First, while the network connectivity far outpaced my iPhone friends, it still just wasn’t good enough for really watchable mobile video. My friend “Tivoboy” sent me a note that said “live stream is cool and novel, but vid quality is poor doesn’t make for real viewing or ANY future use.”  After receiving that (4 videos later), I pretty much stopped.  Here’s a sample video:

So, now that I was reduced to still imagery and blogging, I ran into the next hurdle: I’m amazingly slow at typing on my Eris, and CES is really busy.  Every time I took a pic, I wanted to upload and write right away, but in reality I pretty much had to keep moving.  So I decided to keep the major storytelling for after I returned, and used Twitter for any “real-time” updates.  I’ll spend the rest of the week getting all the content online (depending on how much MW2 I end up playing).

Overall I thought it was a pretty decent CES.  Nothing outstanding, but then there really hasn’t been much amazing to see at CES in years anyway.  It’s the fundamental branding problem of the show.  Further, the rapidity at which content was shared by Engadget and others radically diminished the in-person wow factor.  When you already know about the various 3DTV, ultra-slim TVs, netbooks, tablets, e-readers, and everything else that’s being shown, it takes a bit away from the in-person showiness of it all.

I think this is the fundamental challenge to keep the show interesting and excited for the attendees (beyond their busy schedules full of meetings).  By Friday afternoon (day 2) when I was walking the show with Robert Scoble and Rocky, we had already seen everything we wanted to see.  This is compounded by the (and forgive the word) “lemming-ness” of the big players.  Once 3DTV was pre-established to be a hot thing, it became the only thing, and as a result, boring.  You simply can’t get excited by 5 different demos of the same technology (especially not one that many of us just aren’t excited about).

Things are working pretty well, so I am doing live videos from demos I like. You can catch them here: http://ustre.am/3UY

More to come!!!

The iPad TabletMac MacTouch iSlate will supposedly launch next year, and with it comes the end of an era.  For that statement to make any sense, I should probably backtrack a bit and give a little explanation.  While considering the impact of this product (should it even exist beyond the labs in Cupertino, that is), I’ve been thinking back on the history and evolution of gadgets.  Incidentally, I’m only considering electronic gadgets, but not including computers (or laptops) nor kitchen-related items (pretty much everything in the modern kitchen is some kind of gadget).  I’ve grouped them (in my own mind) into three major phases, and in pure Tolkienish geeky wonderfulness, I’m calling them Ages.

The First Age

Definition: For sake of discussion, I’ll define the First Age of Gadgets as starting with calculators and LCD watches (and, of course, calculator watches).  Sticklers will quickly point out something I’m missing, but in my opinion that’s when the concept of “gadgets” really got kicking.  These products (1) required batteries and (2) did one thing, typically pretty well.  These early gadgets were typically fairly functional in nature, not very gimmicky or showy.  They were also workhorses as compared to modern products – you can drop most “old school” products and not fear for significant damage (probably directly related to LED or single-line LCD outputs).

Timeframe: roughly the early 1970s all the way into the 1990s. That said, many products came out in the ’90s that would still be considered First Age gadgets, per the definition above.

Defining gadget: tie between Walkman and Game Boy.  Both effectively defined a product category, and still do to this day in most respects. It’s far too easy to argue that the iPod is just a “modern” Walkman, and ditto for the DS/PSP.

Memorable gadgets: Mattel Football, Atari 2600, NES, Speak and Spell (the first DSP was inside it), the Polaroid instant camera, and HP calculators (they could graph stuff!), DiscMan (also great, but not as revolutionary as the WalkMan).

The Second Age

Definition: In a nutshell: USB connectivity and/or card reader integration. Slightly more detailed: the Second Age of gadgets is about products that were able to connect and/or share data with a computer (but did not include WiFi) and/or cell phones.  Gadgets started becoming a little more pervasive, a little more mainstream, a lot more pop culture. In addition to the gadgets themselves, the category of gadget accessories really began to boom (chargers, carrying case, rechargeable batteries, etc).  This was also the dawn of the gadget blogs. I asked Peter Rojas, founder of Gizmodo, if he could recall why he launched the site: “It was an experiment, something Nick and I started almost by accident.  I don’t think either of us thought blogging would become as big as it did. People are a LOT more interested in gadgets now than when I started Gizmodo in 2002 – it’s become part of pop culture.”

Timeframe: late 1990s to mid-2000′s.  Obviously there were definitely earlier cell phones and we still have completely disconnected gadgets coming to market today, but this is still a fairly definable time.  Interesting, I referred to this timeframe in another “look back” kind of post last year.

Defining gadget: tough call, but it’s the iPod. No other device was so utterly perfect at the concept of end-to-end interaction between the device and the computer.

Memorable gadgets: TiVo, Motorola StarTac and RAZR, PalmPilot and Palm V, Sony PlayStation, Rio mp3 players (especially the Karma), Casio Exilim and Sony U10/U20 digital cameras, Creative Nomad Jukebox, Garmin Nuvi.

The Third Age

Definition: Internet access and connectivity. Devices had either built-in Internet access, or some hybrid method of interacting with the Internet to share content, data, or services.  In many cases Third Age devices are simple evolutions to their predecessors, but some innovated distinctly enough so that there’s no blurry lines.  Just as the USB-only devices evolved to a point of wacky ideas, we’ve already seen the same thing begin to occur in the current era.

Timeframe: mid-2000′s to 2010.

Defining gadget: This is a debatable call, but I’m going to go with the BlackBerry. It truly ushered in the notion of a converged device with phone and Internet access, and was the major game changer of usage behaviors with regards to mobile devices.  Obviously the iPhone has had its own impact, but one could argue that (1) the BlackBerry is a clear success, and (2) the iPhone might never have come out without it.

Memorable gadgets: iPhone (see, it’s there!), Xbox 360, Harmony 880 remote, Slingbox (disclosure: I built it, so I’m biased, but I think it belongs on the list!), Sonos (disclosure: I have worked with Sonos in the past, but again, I think it’s hard to argue that any other product has so well integrated the Internet and personal media and home gadgets), Eye-Fi (like it or don’t, but it certainly opened new concepts), the Flip, the Kindle. Oh, and of course the Twitterpeek (just kidding).

The Fourth Age

Regardless of the iSlate, we are at the brink of a new generation of gadgets that utterly change the way we think of technology and mobility. Internet access and data synchronization/sharing will be considered ubiquitous and pervasive across new devices.  I consider gadgets like the FitBit right on the fringe of what I’m talking about – designed for a connected life, but don’t focus on a typical way of being used. My expectations for what I’m calling the Fourth Age of gadgets center around three major changes and improvements in displays, inputs, and power.

Displays: I assume we’ll be seeing flexible display surfaces (folding, roll-up, etc) that change the way we physically interact with a device.  The concept of a hard, flat screen (even a touchable one) seems very outdated to me. I think the real revolutionary tablet will be the first one with some form of flexible display (and my money’s on Apple for making this happen). I also foresee better use of microprojectors to remove the need for an on-board display at all.

Input: Next generation products should have inputs much more interesting than just a keyboard.  Let’s assume the concept of gestures is one good starting point, but it really needs to be taken further than the pinching and scrolling effect.  I’m also anticipating more use of optical recognition (like Natal uses) to simple “watch” the user control a device – gestures are even more interesting when you don’t have to touch a screen. Voice recognition and input is basically already here, but yet to be fully put to work (thanks David for that suggestion). Another is more interesting uses of accelerometers and motion sensors, where a gadget is interacted with simply by how you move it around.

Power: I consider batteries, even the most modern Li-Ion ones, one of the key deficiencies in gadget design. Batteries create massive inefficiencies in cost structure, environmental impact, and product usage. As a stopgap solution, I am a fan of the wireless charging concepts, but that’s really just a big bandaid in my opinion. We are right around the corner from making rechargeable fuel cell based devices very feasible. This is a good step, but I’m anticipating some more monumental leaps.  As per my thoughts on flexible displays, I think the materials sciences engineers out there are cooking up some very innovative solutions to make gadgets last longer, weigh less, and be notably cheaper to produce.

For a little sanity check, I asked Josh Topolsky, Editor-in-Chief of Engadget, his opinion:

“I think we’re just starting to scratch the surface of what’s possible in mobile computing (non-laptop, non-traditional computing, that is). Smartphones are in their infancy, tablets are non-existent; what we’ve seen in demos only just begins to show the potential in this space. When manufacturers can add the horsepower and bandwidth needed to those devices without sacrificing battery life or design, our perception of computing will shift dramatically. Multitouch interfaces and UI concepts that involve more than just moving boxes around on a screen will completely upend our ideas about how you interact with the machine; gadgets like the iPhone and Surface have already sparked that fire. In just a few years (say, less than five), I expect that using a laptop or desktop computer will seem quaint, or worse: antiquated.”

Personally, I’m excited about the future.  I’m just ever-so-bored of the current state of gadget affairs.  The iPhone has just sucked the life out of real innovation, and everyone’s playing a pretty boring game of catchup, with the occasional attempt to one-up Apple.  The problem is the giants of CE are acting like big sluggish organizations, and the cost structures have been prohibitive to enable startups to find easy paths to success, with few exceptions to these rules.  Hence why we in the Third Age we have One Phone to Rule Them All.  But 10 years ago we’d have bet on Sony, not Apple, to lead the revolution.  I wonder who will lead us on the road ahead (and if we’ll see it at CES 2010?).

As a “connected gadget guy” I had heard a few rumors that Peek (the company blissfully unaware that people generally do like BlackBerries, and I don’t much care that it’s on Oprah’s list – the future is smartphones and it isn’t slowing down anytime soon) was coming out with a Twitter-only device. I scoffed at most of these comments, as it sounded so… odd. As I stated about the WikiReader last week, in the mobile space converged devices are hands-down beating out single purpose devices.

But I saw a tweet today claiming it’s real, and I did a quick Amazon search, and lo-and-behold – it’s real! But to think that there’s a market out there for a Twitter-only device is just plain puzzling.

Let me break it down a bit:

1. Twitter use is, for the most part, technologists and some celebrities.  Both groups have smartphones, primarily iPhones and BlackBerries, which have fairly rich Twitter integration.  Neither will purchase a new device that does Twitter only.
2. New-to-Twitter people are still getting warm on the concept (well actually mostly they are just dropping the service), and wouldn’t buy a new gadget.
3. This leaves us to the “if and when Twitter gains mass acceptance” market.  Let’s discuss some more…

I’m still far from sold that Twitter hits mainstream adoption. Granted it’s being splattered across virtually every media one comes across, it’s still lacking in its ability to get widespread use by widespread users.  This is very different from “people know about this Twitter thing because of Oprah”.  Right now, most people who encounter the service do not become regular users.  It’s still quite a few steps away from the masses actually using it.

Which makes it even more steps away from the masses buying a device that does nothing but Tweet.  Sorry to poo-poo on a new gadget (again), but I can’t help but feel that this is yet another case of a lack of market definition prior to building something (costly).

By the way, on the chance/assumption that this is exactly the same Peek as before, only more Twitterized, then at least I feel a little bit better that there wasn’t a crazy amount of time investment to build this thing.  But if that’s the case I can’t understand why they’d turn off the email service?  Too much crazy going on for me here to comprehend.

As a last p.s. – whomever was supposed to launch this thing shouldn’t have let Amazon list it early… Kinda spoils the surprise.