I *will* buy a Blue-ray if/when my DVD player is dead/moved to another room.

I will then only buy BR discs if they are as cheap as DVD now (I got 14 hitchcock movies for £14)

the real question is “will this happen before downloading content is mainstream”

answer is – we don’t know.

until then, the market share will creep up slowly over time.

however – VHS quality was bad, and i re-bought on DVD, and rebought tapes on CD/MP3, however i will not rebuy all my movies on BR-DVD, hence; if download is mainstream in 5 years, it’s possible that the number of BR-DVDs sold could get as high as DVDs – all based on the timing. however as long as that keeps driving down DVD prices, I will keep buying really cheap DVDs

also the quality issue: VHS = poor, DVD = very good, BR = extremely good – most people are happy with “very good” though.

As for success. You think LD was a failure even though it was around for 30 years, so I have to keep that in mind.

But Blu-ray will help packaged media fend off downloads by offering the highest quality and giving people the opportunity to buy technology they are comfortable with — not saying this is right, just saying.

It will overtake DVD when enough people’s cheap DVD players break and the price of Blu-ray players is so cheap that no one bothers making DVD players anymore.

For now though it has to be happy with out pacing DVDs first few years and about 4-12 percent of the market depending if you want to compare only new releases or every title under the sun. Either way, most agree that the packaged media industry would be suffering bigger loses if it wasn’t for Blu-ray, which is the entire point.

1) Digital Downloads – The online factor will grow, that is for certain. But do you have any idea how many people are directly concerned by streaming or downloading (as in, have the tech knowledge or even desire to go there)? Or have access to online broadband sevices to start with? (or can afford it)
What’s with the guy in the middle of nowhere … Is he supposed to stay in SD forever with his DVD player that upscales passably “oh-so-not” in 1080p ?

2) Having a clear standard – I didn’t know that the DVD was the standard of native HD.
Your point may be that the average consumer does not care that upscaled 1080p is not real “native” HD, but riddle me this. When Blu Ray players (who can also read DVDs and upscale them) are as cheap as a good DVD player (it’s coming, check the Vizio model coming this April), and Blu Ray discs barely more expensive if at all than DVD releases.
What sense would it make for an educated consumer (and the challenge is here, but it’s growing) to still buy DVDs ?
None.

3 – Blu Ray isn’t going to be replaced – And for you to give an example of a failed format. History is full of failed formats. Take HD DVD per exemple. Ouch.
It’s also full of successes. VHS, DVD …. Blu Ray ?
Your exemple is pretty much useless

4 – HDTVS going down in price – No dissatisfaction?
Really? Funny, because when people start seeing what their HDTV can -really- do in HD (like with HD satellite channels), they start thinking that their DVDs look real crappy. And Blu Ray is -normally- even better than those HD channels.

5 – No need to buy BR, even cheap – Uh, ok.
How about it provides full HD quality with BR films, -AND- upscales your existing DVDs, so when it’s the same price as a DVD player, you’d have to be downright -stupid- not to buy one?
Blu Ray players, even only used as upconverters for starter, -will- replace DVD players. It’s inevitable. DVD playing is the Trojan horse, and later consumers can move on to BR films, which they will be tempted to buy from the get go with new releases anyway when you see a film like Wall E or The Dark Knight.

6 – People not replacing their DVD collection?
And who asked them to?
Again, Upconversion of DVD is built in. Prices are going down, and when players are at the right price, along with films, DVD will naturally die. That’ll take a long time though, don’t get me wrong.

7 – Yeah. I think Sony will sell lots of PS3s. They already sell,all things being equal (started a year later) more than 360s year per year (year 1 of PS3 vs year 1 of 360, etc.). If you have seen the PS3 lineup to come, compute a more than probable price drop to $299, and all the media capabilities of a PS3, yeah. I think so. Color me an optimist.

8 – You want to play that game? Ok.
How about CDs and CD-ROMs? That’s Sony (+Philips). Walkman? U-Matic? U-Matic SP, Betacam, Betacam SP, Betacam Digital and SX, etc.
All Sony, and de facto standards. You lose some, you win some (never seemd to me that UMD was made with anything more than the goal of being the PSP medium for games and movies, and not an industry standard, but who knows). This being said, Blu Ray (and that’s a lil’ problem with the original article) isn’t -Sony-. It’s dozens of CE makers, with a very strong take from Samsung and Panasonic.

9 – Apparently you don’t like Sony. Looks like it’s all the rage these days, along with Microsoft or Toshiba (Pioneer too, who can seem to do no wrong) boot licking.
Sony is torn appart every day in the medias, while I haven’t seen anybody exploring the 360 Arcade profitability. Or the whole division’s profitability after their price cuts. Or Toshiba’s idiotic and desperate clench on the DVD format (engadget has done that a little bit). If Hirai or another Sony rep says something, it’s deriled and mocked to no end.
If Aaron Greenberg (MS) says anything, it’s gospel.
Frankly to me Sony is just another CE maker that made a good machine (PS3) but too expensive, but the dual standards gets old sometimes.