LIVEdigitally

In response to the article How Apple Will Use The iPhone To Take Over The Wireless Industry, I’m opening by saying “take over” is a ludicrous claim.  Do you have any idea the sheer volume of mobile handsets sold worldwide?

Further, there are a lot fewer people influenced by style and experience in the phone industry than in others.  The Razr (aka the most successful cell phone of all time) moved 50M units in 4 years.  And that’s been THE trendy phone to-date, and you can get them for next-to-nothing already.

But I’ll keep going, the turnover rate in mobile phones in the US is under two years and dropping.  In countries like Hong Kong it’s hovering just over 3 months.  So Apple has to not only have the “best” phone (already questionable), but they must sustain that position continuously.

Also (I’m on a roll here), don’t forget that the mobile OS industry is much less locked-down than the PC industry, where the only competition takes 5 years to put out a terrible upgrade to their OS.  There are 4 other solid mobile operating systems for manufacturers to choose from, all of which allow for tremendous device flexibility.

Finally, unlike the PC industry which operates on margins so bad that a single tech support call makes a PC unprofitable, there’s plenty of money in mobile.  LG, Samsung, Moto, and Nokia (to name a few) will not bend-over quite as peacefully as Compaq, Dell, Gateway, and Sony (you know Sony, right, makers of my hunk-o-laptop?) have to the competition.

Will Apple be a player in the mobile space? Definitely.  Will they utterly dominate it the way they do the music space? I have to say it’s possible, but I highly doubt it.

I have to remember to write a blog post talking about domain expertise and the difference between the Web world and the device world.

First, go read Kent’s great post on the 5 stages of blogging. Don’t continue until you’ve done this, as my post makes almost no sense without it as a baseline.

Second (you aren’t cheating, are you? ok good), go read Jeremiah’s great followup on 5 other stages of blogging. Done?

I think these two have started a great analysis, and I’d suggest a third mini-path to add as well (and would make a pretty graphic if I weren’t in the midst of some very frustrating issues with my new Vaio and Vista). My third path would go right in between the other two, and would have these steps:

3. Ennui – at this point the blogger is neither focused nor disappointed, they are, in a word, bored. Maybe they have some traffic, maybe they don’t, but they find it more challenging to create content on a recurring basis. Writing becomes irregular, infrequent, and spans numerous topics. From Ennui, the blogger will either move on to 4a:Revival or 4b:Malaise.

4a. Revival – something sparks life back into the blogger, either another blog post, a personal or life-changing event, or some huge piece of industry-specific news. The blog regains its pulse and attention, and the blogger’s back on top of his/her game. From here, the blogger moves back into stage 2:Expectation.

4b. Malaise – the blogger posts even less frequently, and the blog becomes more of an afterthought than an activity, and is on its way to out. The blogger doesn’t necessarily go through Kent’s stages of alienation, because based on sheer numbers, most bloggers don’t really get intertwined with “the blogosphere”. In this case, reality sets in for the individual that they just aren’t a writer. I firmly believe that not everyone was meant to blog (or podcast or vlog). Blogging seems like a great idea when we all start it, but let’s face it: blogging is work, and good blogging is hard work. Most people don’t enjoy spending time on activities wherein they aren’t being successful or feeling good about themselves. After this, Kent’s original stage 5:Abandonment is the only spot left to go.
I’m curious to see where the thread goes from here.